* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICTOR AL202021 10/02/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 40 39 37 34 29 25 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 29 32 V (KT) LAND 45 41 40 39 37 34 29 25 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 29 32 V (KT) LGEM 45 41 37 35 33 29 26 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 15 15 19 20 23 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 5 4 4 5 11 10 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 209 205 201 205 223 218 219 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 132 131 129 128 129 132 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 129 128 125 124 123 123 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -55.2 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 56 56 58 53 48 42 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 17 15 13 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 76 71 71 62 35 3 -48 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 27 39 38 43 34 19 6 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 8 10 13 14 20 23 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1773 1810 1831 1807 1795 1829 1877 1961 1984 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.5 15.3 17.3 19.4 21.3 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.8 36.7 37.6 38.6 39.5 41.4 43.5 45.5 47.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 13 12 14 14 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 30 29 35 27 17 20 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -16. -20. -22. -23. -24. -24. -24. -23. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -16. -20. -25. -25. -24. -23. -22. -20. -18. -16. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.5 35.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202021 VICTOR 10/02/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.47 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 12.8% 8.6% 8.1% 6.1% 9.0% 7.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.8% 3.1% 2.8% 2.1% 3.0% 2.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202021 VICTOR 10/02/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202021 VICTOR 10/02/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 41 40 39 37 34 29 25 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 29 32 18HR AGO 45 44 43 42 40 37 32 28 23 23 24 25 26 28 30 32 35 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 38 35 30 26 21 21 22 23 24 26 28 30 33 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 30 25 21 16 16 17 18 19 21 23 25 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT