* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICTOR AL202021 10/02/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 43 42 39 34 29 27 25 26 28 29 31 33 36 39 V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 43 42 39 34 29 27 25 26 28 29 31 33 36 39 V (KT) LGEM 50 47 44 42 39 36 33 29 26 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 17 16 17 23 26 22 25 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 8 2 2 2 3 7 3 1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 197 202 195 194 188 201 216 221 233 292 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.1 27.0 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 136 132 131 127 125 133 132 129 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 132 133 129 127 123 120 125 121 117 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -55.0 -55.4 -55.9 -56.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 8 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 59 60 59 51 44 43 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 16 15 13 11 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 73 70 70 68 54 20 -17 -51 -57 -63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 24 27 35 35 42 41 14 6 -26 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 6 9 10 19 19 12 13 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1756 1784 1817 1856 1830 1832 1877 1949 2040 2028 1911 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.9 14.6 16.4 18.5 20.5 22.1 23.6 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.0 35.8 36.6 37.5 38.4 40.2 42.2 44.1 45.5 47.0 48.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 11 12 12 14 13 12 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 22 29 29 35 16 8 29 12 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -17. -21. -25. -27. -28. -28. -28. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -16. -21. -23. -25. -24. -22. -21. -19. -17. -14. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.1 35.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202021 VICTOR 10/02/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 11.3% 7.7% 7.4% 5.5% 8.6% 7.9% 4.3% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.2% 2.8% 2.5% 1.9% 2.9% 2.7% 1.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202021 VICTOR 10/02/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 47 45 43 42 39 34 29 27 25 26 28 29 31 33 36 39 18HR AGO 50 49 47 45 44 41 36 31 29 27 28 30 31 33 35 38 41 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 43 40 35 30 28 26 27 29 30 32 34 37 40 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 36 31 26 24 22 23 25 26 28 30 33 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT