* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICTOR AL202021 10/01/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 51 49 44 37 33 29 27 26 26 26 29 32 35 37 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 51 49 44 37 33 29 27 26 26 26 29 32 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 53 51 49 45 40 36 32 29 28 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 19 19 17 24 26 25 22 22 19 31 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 18 12 6 1 2 1 7 6 1 2 5 -1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 197 188 187 193 198 209 227 229 272 286 298 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.6 27.2 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 134 136 132 128 126 128 132 130 130 129 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 131 133 129 124 122 120 121 117 115 114 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.7 -55.3 -55.9 -56.3 -56.6 -57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 59 59 59 53 49 44 46 45 49 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 18 17 16 13 11 10 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 79 67 71 67 54 33 -6 -48 -63 -50 -71 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 11 23 9 15 48 33 13 12 -4 -9 -28 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 7 5 7 9 16 19 15 14 12 10 4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1772 1781 1796 1847 1901 1887 1905 1958 2037 2116 2073 2118 2126 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.3 14.0 15.8 17.8 19.9 21.6 23.1 24.5 26.3 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 33.8 34.6 35.4 36.3 37.1 38.8 40.9 42.9 44.5 45.8 46.8 47.0 46.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 11 13 14 13 10 9 8 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 10 18 26 27 19 9 19 16 11 19 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -17. -23. -27. -30. -32. -34. -33. -32. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -18. -22. -25. -28. -29. -29. -29. -26. -23. -20. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.8 33.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202021 VICTOR 10/01/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 15.5% 9.8% 9.0% 6.6% 9.9% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.7% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.5% 4.3% 3.2% 2.3% 3.7% 3.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202021 VICTOR 10/01/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 53 51 49 44 37 33 29 27 26 26 26 29 32 35 37 18HR AGO 55 54 53 51 49 44 37 33 29 27 26 26 26 29 32 35 37 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 47 42 35 31 27 25 24 24 24 27 30 33 35 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 38 31 27 23 21 20 20 20 23 26 29 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT