* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICTOR AL202021 10/01/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 53 51 49 44 38 32 29 27 26 28 29 29 29 31 33 V (KT) LAND 55 55 53 51 49 44 38 32 29 27 26 28 29 29 29 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 51 48 43 39 35 31 28 26 26 26 27 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 12 17 19 21 21 27 27 23 23 17 20 30 44 48 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 19 17 12 6 1 1 2 8 1 2 2 5 -3 -4 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 193 196 195 190 185 191 210 225 232 248 283 276 276 243 239 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.4 26.9 26.9 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.4 26.1 25.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 130 134 134 130 125 124 130 130 129 132 130 116 109 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 128 127 131 131 126 121 117 119 117 115 118 115 103 96 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.8 -55.2 -55.5 -56.2 -56.7 -57.0 -57.3 -57.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 8 7 5 4 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 61 58 57 55 49 47 47 47 44 50 51 47 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 18 17 15 12 9 8 6 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 74 68 61 65 62 55 14 -28 -72 -62 -62 -55 -35 -9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 33 16 22 13 30 42 47 24 15 4 -9 3 21 40 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 9 7 7 7 10 15 21 16 17 10 9 0 -12 -22 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1722 1755 1760 1804 1854 1899 1912 1997 2061 2154 2272 2284 2136 1904 1716 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.8 13.4 15.1 17.1 19.5 21.0 22.5 24.2 26.2 28.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 33.0 33.9 34.9 35.6 36.4 38.0 39.9 41.7 42.9 43.9 44.7 45.2 45.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 12 14 12 9 9 9 11 12 14 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 12 20 27 30 8 10 30 12 12 19 20 5 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -9. -12. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -19. -23. -28. -31. -34. -35. -35. -34. -32. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -23. -26. -28. -29. -27. -26. -26. -26. -24. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.3 33.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202021 VICTOR 10/01/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.40 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 14.6% 9.4% 8.6% 6.3% 9.8% 8.9% 5.6% Logistic: 1.7% 3.2% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 1.3% 0.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 3.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.1% 4.1% 3.1% 2.3% 3.9% 3.2% 2.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202021 VICTOR 10/01/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 53 51 49 44 38 32 29 27 26 28 29 29 29 31 33 18HR AGO 55 54 52 50 48 43 37 31 28 26 25 27 28 28 28 30 32 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 47 42 36 30 27 25 24 26 27 27 27 29 31 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 38 32 26 23 21 20 22 23 23 23 25 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT