* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICTOR AL202021 10/01/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 52 51 48 43 38 33 27 25 22 24 24 26 26 29 30 V (KT) LAND 50 52 52 51 48 43 38 33 27 25 22 24 24 26 26 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 53 52 49 43 39 34 29 26 23 23 23 23 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 13 19 21 22 27 33 30 26 30 23 31 39 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 15 17 9 6 3 1 4 5 0 -3 2 -4 -6 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 191 193 196 195 195 208 214 237 250 283 270 276 226 237 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.5 27.5 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.6 25.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 131 132 132 128 127 126 132 131 134 131 126 121 112 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 130 129 129 128 123 123 120 123 120 119 113 109 105 97 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -55.3 -55.4 -56.1 -56.6 -57.0 -57.3 -58.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 5 4 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 62 61 61 61 59 57 55 50 48 48 46 51 53 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 21 20 18 16 13 11 8 6 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 78 79 81 77 69 53 29 -22 -64 -71 -67 -76 -60 -33 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 42 23 28 19 23 50 37 23 4 -19 12 19 47 55 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 8 7 9 7 12 18 21 19 12 11 4 1 -1 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1583 1665 1751 1823 1899 2032 2019 2105 2213 2375 2379 2189 2081 1909 1676 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.9 12.3 13.0 13.7 15.2 17.0 19.5 21.9 24.3 26.6 28.4 29.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.7 32.6 33.5 34.3 35.1 36.5 38.3 40.1 41.7 43.0 43.9 43.9 43.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 11 14 14 14 13 10 8 9 12 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 7 8 11 14 12 7 11 15 19 22 16 7 5 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -15. -16. -18. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -23. -27. -31. -33. -35. -34. -34. -33. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -12. -17. -23. -25. -28. -26. -26. -24. -24. -21. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.4 31.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202021 VICTOR 10/01/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.44 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 15.1% 9.8% 8.9% 6.3% 9.7% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 4.7% 2.8% 1.6% 0.8% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 7.0% 4.4% 3.5% 2.4% 3.7% 3.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202021 VICTOR 10/01/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 52 51 48 43 38 33 27 25 22 24 24 26 26 29 30 18HR AGO 50 49 49 48 45 40 35 30 24 22 19 21 21 23 23 26 27 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 42 37 32 27 21 19 16 18 18 20 20 23 24 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 32 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT