* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICTOR AL202021 10/01/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 58 57 53 47 43 38 35 32 30 32 36 37 40 41 V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 58 57 53 47 43 38 35 32 30 32 36 37 40 41 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 56 56 55 50 46 41 37 33 29 28 29 31 32 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 9 12 17 21 27 34 24 25 17 22 24 43 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 15 16 17 14 8 9 5 5 7 1 3 0 0 -6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 213 168 170 188 185 194 216 236 244 252 272 278 269 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 135 133 131 130 128 126 128 130 129 132 128 120 118 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 134 130 129 127 124 123 122 119 116 118 111 101 98 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -55.9 -56.7 -56.9 -57.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 6 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 64 67 66 64 60 55 50 43 41 41 41 41 43 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 23 22 18 16 15 12 10 8 6 6 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 62 69 70 65 71 66 43 14 -18 -70 -64 -53 -40 -24 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 96 76 62 48 21 10 41 47 42 11 3 14 13 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 4 8 9 13 11 19 17 22 12 10 1 2 -9 -19 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1466 1539 1617 1687 1759 1897 2034 2047 2141 2265 2438 2373 2145 1995 1906 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.8 11.3 11.9 12.4 13.9 15.6 17.7 20.4 22.7 24.8 27.0 29.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.2 31.1 32.0 32.8 33.6 35.1 36.8 38.7 40.7 42.1 42.7 42.8 42.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 13 15 15 12 11 11 10 6 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 8 8 13 11 8 14 14 19 18 7 6 5 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -12. -17. -21. -25. -29. -30. -28. -28. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 7. 3. -3. -7. -12. -15. -18. -20. -18. -14. -13. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 10.3 30.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202021 VICTOR 10/01/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.47 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 27.6% 19.9% 10.3% 7.5% 13.5% 12.1% 9.2% Logistic: 4.9% 10.7% 5.7% 3.3% 1.5% 2.1% 1.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.9% 6.0% 3.0% 0.4% 0.4% 2.7% 1.7% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 14.8% 9.6% 4.7% 3.1% 6.1% 5.0% 3.1% DTOPS: 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202021 VICTOR 10/01/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 56 58 57 53 47 43 38 35 32 30 32 36 37 40 41 18HR AGO 50 49 51 53 52 48 42 38 33 30 27 25 27 31 32 35 36 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 47 43 37 33 28 25 22 20 22 26 27 30 31 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 35 29 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT