* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICTOR AL202021 09/30/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 50 52 51 46 44 41 35 31 28 26 27 30 32 31 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 50 52 51 46 44 41 35 31 28 26 27 30 32 31 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 47 49 47 44 40 36 32 28 24 23 23 24 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 1 3 4 12 23 24 28 34 28 29 19 29 24 34 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 13 15 18 18 15 6 5 4 9 3 0 0 -1 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 357 195 122 195 152 171 186 207 221 233 233 240 262 265 248 232 216 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.6 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.2 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 138 138 137 132 132 128 126 126 126 131 129 123 121 117 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 139 138 138 135 130 129 125 122 120 118 118 112 105 103 102 94 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -55.0 -55.3 -55.8 -56.6 -57.1 -57.1 -57.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 65 64 62 56 50 50 45 44 44 38 35 41 46 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 22 22 20 16 15 13 11 9 6 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 70 65 63 67 66 75 60 38 0 -22 -57 -59 -55 -69 -62 -25 200 MB DIV 88 116 113 81 29 22 2 21 30 51 36 5 9 23 22 29 52 700-850 TADV -8 -7 0 6 5 6 10 17 23 23 15 10 -1 -6 -1 -17 -12 LAND (KM) 1310 1394 1478 1552 1630 1766 1899 2050 2101 2206 2404 2457 2213 2049 1953 1839 1765 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.6 10.0 10.5 10.9 12.1 13.7 15.7 18.1 20.7 23.7 26.4 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.4 29.3 30.2 31.1 32.0 33.6 35.1 36.7 38.4 40.1 41.3 42.2 42.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 12 13 15 15 15 12 10 7 8 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 17 12 10 9 9 8 14 10 9 11 14 19 8 6 9 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. 20. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. -2. -5. -7. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -12. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -8. -11. -16. -19. -24. -28. -32. -34. -33. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 12. 11. 6. 4. 1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -13. -10. -8. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 9.2 28.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202021 VICTOR 09/30/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 30.1 to 2.3 1.00 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 36.6% 26.6% 12.0% 7.8% 19.1% 17.3% 13.5% Logistic: 11.0% 29.8% 18.3% 11.0% 5.5% 6.4% 3.1% 0.8% Bayesian: 3.2% 8.6% 3.4% 0.3% 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 0.1% Consensus: 6.9% 25.0% 16.1% 7.7% 4.5% 9.0% 7.1% 4.8% DTOPS: 5.0% 12.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202021 VICTOR 09/30/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 48 50 52 51 46 44 41 35 31 28 26 27 30 32 31 18HR AGO 40 39 43 45 47 46 41 39 36 30 26 23 21 22 25 27 26 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 40 39 34 32 29 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 31 26 24 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT