* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICTOR AL202021 09/30/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 51 56 60 63 63 59 54 48 43 43 43 41 41 40 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 51 56 60 63 63 59 54 48 43 43 43 41 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 47 51 56 57 56 51 44 38 34 30 29 27 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 2 4 6 9 12 21 23 28 32 31 35 30 36 26 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 8 8 11 15 10 10 11 10 8 2 -6 -2 -6 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 6 22 61 101 106 139 163 179 217 224 232 232 232 242 227 220 229 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.5 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 144 141 141 137 138 134 133 134 133 134 131 127 121 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 147 144 141 141 137 137 131 129 128 125 120 114 111 108 96 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.4 -55.1 -55.6 -55.7 -56.6 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 700-500 MB RH 66 66 64 65 66 66 63 58 52 51 45 41 39 38 35 42 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 24 24 22 22 20 17 15 13 10 10 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 52 61 68 66 63 64 65 84 74 47 11 -4 -51 -37 -57 -61 -21 200 MB DIV 153 140 132 151 113 82 52 22 51 37 47 30 10 20 19 5 36 700-850 TADV -11 -10 -10 -6 -1 6 6 12 19 24 26 18 6 -4 0 -5 -25 LAND (KM) 1120 1200 1284 1381 1480 1619 1751 1898 2034 2076 2201 2385 2517 2310 2185 1989 1760 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.6 9.0 9.3 9.6 10.6 11.8 13.5 15.6 17.8 20.4 23.2 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.2 27.2 28.1 29.1 30.1 31.8 33.4 35.2 36.8 38.4 39.8 40.8 41.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 13 13 14 15 15 12 9 11 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 20 16 13 11 9 16 14 14 18 16 22 12 6 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. 2. -0. -5. -9. -13. -18. -19. -19. -21. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 17. 21. 25. 28. 28. 24. 19. 13. 8. 8. 8. 6. 6. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 8.2 26.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202021 VICTOR 09/30/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.95 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 137.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.78 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 33.5% 23.4% 9.5% 7.0% 16.7% 27.0% 16.9% Logistic: 11.9% 45.3% 24.5% 12.7% 5.9% 13.3% 11.6% 3.1% Bayesian: 4.9% 22.0% 13.4% 1.0% 0.7% 8.4% 6.5% 1.5% Consensus: 7.5% 33.6% 20.4% 7.7% 4.5% 12.8% 15.0% 7.2% DTOPS: 4.0% 36.0% 14.0% 6.0% 3.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202021 VICTOR 09/30/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 45 51 56 60 63 63 59 54 48 43 43 43 41 41 40 18HR AGO 35 34 40 46 51 55 58 58 54 49 43 38 38 38 36 36 35 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 42 46 49 49 45 40 34 29 29 29 27 27 26 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 34 37 37 33 28 22 17 17 17 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT