* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TERESA AL192021 09/24/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 46 46 45 45 44 42 40 38 36 35 35 35 34 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 46 46 45 45 44 42 40 38 36 35 35 35 34 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 44 45 45 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 28 28 24 25 25 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -3 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 271 276 259 254 247 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 122 122 123 122 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 103 100 100 99 97 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -55.8 -55.8 -56.0 -56.0 -55.7 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 49 52 52 51 53 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -24 -29 -21 -11 27 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 20 33 35 22 28 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 7 14 7 15 17 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 987 899 812 765 721 708 716 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 7 6 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 10 20 21 33 22 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 15 CX,CY: -6/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 773 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -26. -29. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.1 64.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192021 TERESA 09/24/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.29 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 80.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.20 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 8.6% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 5.8% 3.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.8% 3.3% 0.4% 0.1% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192021 TERESA 09/24/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192021 TERESA 09/24/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 46 46 46 45 45 44 42 40 38 36 35 35 35 34 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 43 43 42 42 41 39 37 35 33 32 32 32 31 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 38 38 37 37 36 34 32 30 28 27 27 27 26 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 30 29 29 28 26 24 22 20 19 19 19 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT