* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 10/05/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 61 58 54 45 37 31 34 32 29 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 64 61 58 54 45 37 31 34 32 29 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 64 58 53 50 45 45 48 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 37 21 13 20 25 19 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 0 0 3 4 6 2 1 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 188 186 217 227 207 201 210 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 14.2 13.1 11.4 12.1 12.1 11.5 11.9 10.5 8.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 72 66 64 66 67 68 69 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 69 63 61 64 64 66 67 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.1 -49.9 -49.6 -50.0 -49.2 -49.4 -49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 1.0 2.2 3.7 3.8 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 49 42 44 54 57 67 71 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 40 44 43 38 31 28 27 31 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 199 247 248 286 286 282 296 282 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 81 27 36 23 27 54 57 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 58 4 -3 -17 -25 -28 -12 25 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1005 996 1000 1126 1254 1384 1047 999 1367 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 50.0 51.0 51.9 51.9 51.8 53.4 56.7 60.8 63.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.3 39.6 39.9 38.0 36.1 31.0 25.8 22.4 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 10 7 12 14 20 22 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 36 CX,CY: 12/ 34 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -13. -16. -19. -24. -31. -38. -44. -48. -52. -55. -59. -60. -61. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -10. -13. -17. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -4. -10. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. -0. -7. -12. -16. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. 18. 21. 22. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -12. -16. -25. -33. -39. -36. -38. -41. -43. -49. -58. -66. -70. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 50.0 39.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 10/05/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -5.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 10/05/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 10/05/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 64 61 58 54 45 37 31 34 32 29 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 66 63 59 50 42 36 39 37 34 32 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 63 59 50 42 36 39 37 34 32 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 56 47 39 33 36 34 31 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT