* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 10/05/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 67 61 58 56 46 36 31 33 30 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 67 61 58 56 46 36 31 33 30 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 68 61 55 50 44 44 47 51 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 30 29 19 7 23 25 20 19 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 12 3 -1 12 8 5 1 -2 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 202 194 190 219 221 201 202 171 178 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.2 17.7 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.4 11.9 11.8 9.6 8.5 9.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 81 76 68 65 68 70 70 68 64 63 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 71 64 62 64 67 67 65 63 61 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.0 -50.8 -50.4 -50.0 -51.1 -50.1 -49.4 -49.0 -48.5 -49.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 0.9 1.9 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 60 49 44 50 53 59 64 79 82 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 39 40 40 33 29 29 33 32 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 174 225 272 279 279 269 302 339 221 227 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 20 71 41 30 15 51 63 45 36 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 24 5 0 -7 -22 -24 0 6 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 930 906 916 976 1037 1436 1155 1009 1318 1488 1532 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 46.3 48.3 50.3 50.4 50.4 50.7 54.2 58.1 60.9 60.8 58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.7 40.7 40.6 39.8 38.9 33.3 27.7 24.4 28.3 31.4 33.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 20 11 5 12 20 23 17 11 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 31 CX,CY: 22/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -13. -16. -20. -26. -34. -42. -49. -54. -58. -62. -66. -67. -68. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -3. -8. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. -4. -10. -12. -8. -11. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. 20. 21. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -17. -19. -29. -39. -44. -42. -45. -48. -51. -56. -64. -70. -74. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 46.3 40.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 10/05/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -7.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 10/05/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 10/05/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 67 61 58 56 46 36 31 33 30 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 68 65 63 53 43 38 40 37 34 31 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 68 66 56 46 41 43 40 37 34 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 53 43 38 40 37 34 31 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT