* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 10/04/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 67 63 63 54 37 30 28 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 74 67 63 63 54 37 30 28 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 73 66 59 54 46 41 44 49 49 48 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 33 34 32 18 22 29 26 23 14 2 5 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 11 6 -3 5 7 3 0 0 -3 -4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 193 203 209 190 181 222 201 198 191 139 121 226 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.6 19.5 16.7 14.8 14.0 14.0 12.1 12.2 10.3 9.4 8.6 8.9 9.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 83 74 67 67 70 69 69 65 63 62 61 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 77 69 63 63 66 67 67 63 61 61 59 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -51.8 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -50.1 -50.5 -49.5 -49.0 -48.7 -48.2 -49.4 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 1.0 2.0 3.9 2.4 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.7 3.0 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 59 59 50 42 55 59 70 74 82 77 74 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 39 38 39 41 46 40 31 31 34 34 31 27 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 145 193 219 280 278 279 278 306 269 257 193 130 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 36 33 72 43 37 30 69 59 46 22 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -34 -7 43 0 -3 -27 -33 -4 10 2 -1 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 810 823 909 942 980 1266 1336 1013 1106 1276 1473 1467 1268 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.8 46.4 49.0 49.7 50.4 50.6 52.9 56.2 60.3 61.5 60.4 59.8 60.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.6 42.1 40.6 40.1 39.7 35.7 30.1 25.4 24.6 27.3 31.3 31.6 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 30 28 18 8 9 16 21 20 13 8 7 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 33 CX,CY: 23/ 23 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -16. -21. -28. -36. -45. -54. -59. -64. -68. -72. -74. -75. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -7. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. -1. -7. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 4. -1. -11. -13. -11. -13. -17. -23. -35. -34. -33. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. 18. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -17. -26. -43. -50. -52. -55. -60. -67. -82. -87. -92. -94. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 43.8 43.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 10/04/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.15 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -8.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.08 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 10/04/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 10/04/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 3( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 74 67 63 63 54 37 30 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 72 68 68 59 42 35 33 30 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 72 72 63 46 39 37 34 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 61 44 37 35 32 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT