* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 10/04/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 75 69 69 60 47 33 25 25 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 81 75 69 69 60 47 33 25 25 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 80 75 69 62 50 41 40 44 48 51 49 46 44 43 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 32 38 34 12 19 24 17 13 13 7 5 28 51 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 11 13 15 3 4 6 6 2 -1 -4 -3 -1 10 11 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 202 206 206 182 197 205 194 187 211 165 157 263 257 255 N/A N/A SST (C) 22.8 22.0 20.2 17.8 16.3 13.6 13.1 11.8 10.9 10.0 9.1 8.8 9.3 9.0 8.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 92 84 76 72 68 69 68 66 64 61 60 60 61 62 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 87 84 77 71 67 65 66 66 64 62 60 58 58 59 61 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.8 -51.8 -50.9 -50.5 -50.0 -51.0 -50.1 -48.9 -48.9 -48.9 -49.1 -49.2 -52.1 -55.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 1.7 4.1 2.8 2.5 2.7 1.6 1.4 1.6 2.7 0.6 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 58 56 46 50 56 62 67 76 79 73 72 60 47 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 39 40 40 44 50 46 37 31 29 31 33 31 27 17 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 132 152 196 244 285 285 260 288 321 248 224 187 163 70 38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 36 39 50 60 37 24 50 46 49 32 27 32 14 58 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -20 35 15 -9 -23 -29 -25 -5 29 6 -3 -4 -4 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 759 742 820 864 945 1136 1455 1235 1140 1266 1410 1442 1352 1398 1489 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.4 43.5 45.6 47.4 49.1 50.3 51.4 54.1 57.4 59.7 60.8 61.2 61.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.1 44.8 42.5 41.3 40.1 37.5 33.1 28.9 27.1 27.9 30.0 30.5 28.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 27 23 19 14 13 16 17 14 9 5 2 2 5 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 26 CX,CY: 21/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -22. -29. -39. -49. -59. -65. -70. -75. -80. -81. -82. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. -3. -3. -2. -4. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. -3. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 8. 5. -4. -12. -16. -15. -14. -17. -24. -36. -45. -43. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. 17. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -16. -16. -25. -38. -52. -60. -60. -61. -65. -73. -91.-107.-108.-110. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 41.4 47.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 10/04/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.06 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 315.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -7.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 79.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 10/04/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 10/04/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 5( 15) 3( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 81 75 69 69 60 47 33 25 25 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 78 72 72 63 50 36 28 28 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 75 75 66 53 39 31 31 30 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 75 66 53 39 31 31 30 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 57 44 30 22 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT