* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 10/04/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 85 78 73 69 56 40 29 24 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 89 85 78 73 69 56 40 29 24 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 88 83 77 70 55 44 41 43 48 51 50 49 49 51 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 18 20 35 37 15 17 27 21 13 14 8 1 18 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 0 8 9 10 0 2 7 4 -1 -5 -4 -2 0 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 197 206 201 200 205 192 219 202 189 191 208 172 305 242 254 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 23.3 22.7 19.2 17.1 13.5 13.8 12.3 12.3 10.6 9.0 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 99 96 83 75 66 69 69 68 66 63 61 60 62 64 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 91 87 77 70 63 66 66 66 64 62 59 58 61 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -49.4 -48.6 -49.1 -50.0 -50.8 -52.3 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5 2.6 3.4 2.2 2.5 2.9 1.8 1.9 2.1 3.5 4.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 59 57 41 51 57 67 75 85 83 75 70 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 39 40 40 44 51 41 33 30 30 33 30 25 21 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 130 146 191 221 269 266 270 302 254 235 202 134 116 100 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 34 43 -3 17 21 31 32 61 54 33 16 41 28 115 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -15 -10 -27 -3 6 4 -21 -26 -14 4 14 -2 -1 0 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 799 736 792 820 924 1001 1266 1345 1067 1173 1389 1507 1497 1480 1464 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.9 41.8 43.6 46.3 48.9 50.8 50.7 52.8 56.1 59.5 61.9 62.3 60.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.9 46.9 44.0 42.2 40.4 39.5 35.7 30.2 26.3 26.3 29.3 31.4 31.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 29 28 29 20 9 16 20 17 15 9 4 3 8 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 21 CX,CY: 17/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -21. -30. -41. -52. -62. -69. -75. -79. -84. -86. -87. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -9. -8. -8. -5. -3. -3. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -6. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 10. 1. -9. -14. -16. -13. -18. -25. -30. -37. -35. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 16. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -12. -17. -21. -34. -50. -61. -66. -65. -71. -79. -87. -98.-100.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 39.9 49.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 10/04/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 386.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -5.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 10/04/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 10/04/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 4( 24) 3( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 85 78 73 69 56 40 29 24 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 85 78 73 69 56 40 29 24 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 79 74 70 57 41 30 25 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 75 71 58 42 31 26 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 67 54 38 27 22 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 67 54 38 27 22 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 89 85 76 70 66 53 37 26 21 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS