* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 10/03/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 82 79 76 65 66 56 38 32 32 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 84 82 79 76 65 66 56 38 32 32 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 82 81 77 72 61 51 44 41 44 49 50 49 49 50 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 16 23 26 32 19 19 28 23 19 12 10 6 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 9 2 0 5 11 -4 3 8 4 -4 -4 -4 -2 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 200 205 196 191 199 205 176 221 203 204 205 181 159 262 269 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.7 25.0 22.8 21.2 16.1 12.6 14.0 11.8 11.2 9.7 9.0 9.2 9.6 8.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 114 110 96 89 73 64 69 69 68 64 62 60 66 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 100 98 88 82 69 61 66 67 66 62 60 59 64 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -53.5 -53.1 -51.5 -51.3 -50.7 -50.6 -49.4 -48.9 -48.6 -49.3 -51.3 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 -0.4 2.1 3.4 2.3 2.2 2.6 1.3 1.3 2.7 2.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 49 50 52 58 41 51 57 64 78 86 74 68 61 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 36 36 39 40 45 39 30 28 30 30 27 23 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 80 109 129 157 213 271 250 272 323 227 232 163 65 73 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 38 31 52 31 8 20 23 26 67 43 26 10 -2 13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -25 -24 -27 -33 15 0 -8 -18 5 16 5 -5 8 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 967 828 722 667 735 930 997 1193 1371 1163 1315 1418 1462 1360 1122 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.0 39.3 40.6 42.5 44.3 49.3 51.3 50.4 53.1 57.1 60.6 61.4 59.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.8 51.9 50.0 47.1 44.3 40.3 39.7 36.7 30.7 27.6 28.3 30.0 31.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 20 24 28 27 19 6 15 21 19 11 5 3 15 21 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 13 CX,CY: 11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -24. -34. -44. -52. -58. -64. -69. -74. -75. -77. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -7. -5. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -3. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 9. 2. -10. -14. -13. -14. -18. -24. -31. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -20. -19. -29. -47. -53. -53. -57. -62. -71. -80. -82. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 38.0 53.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 10/03/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 10/03/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 10/03/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 8( 17) 5( 21) 2( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 84 82 79 76 65 66 56 38 32 32 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 82 79 76 65 66 56 38 32 32 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 78 75 64 65 55 37 31 31 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 72 61 62 52 34 28 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 55 56 46 28 22 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 84 75 69 66 60 61 51 33 27 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT