* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 10/03/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 81 79 76 66 57 56 41 30 28 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 82 81 79 76 66 57 56 41 30 28 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 80 77 75 71 61 52 46 41 41 46 49 48 46 46 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 12 14 20 34 27 11 23 26 21 13 8 4 27 53 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 6 4 4 6 3 8 9 8 7 -2 0 -2 20 12 9 SHEAR DIR 139 188 212 207 194 205 198 193 213 186 188 160 130 236 255 262 243 SST (C) 26.3 25.6 26.3 23.7 23.0 17.0 13.3 13.4 11.5 11.6 11.2 10.1 8.5 8.4 9.3 9.1 8.6 POT. INT. (KT) 119 113 120 101 97 76 67 67 68 68 66 64 62 60 62 62 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 98 106 91 88 72 64 64 65 66 63 62 61 59 61 60 61 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -51.8 -51.2 -50.1 -50.0 -49.5 -48.4 -47.5 -48.1 -49.5 -53.5 -58.0 -60.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.7 -0.3 -0.2 0.5 -0.3 0.3 3.1 2.3 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.5 3.8 3.4 0.7 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 49 48 50 50 58 48 46 50 55 67 79 78 73 67 56 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 37 37 37 38 37 41 33 27 27 30 27 22 16 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 52 68 94 118 135 200 267 271 272 321 375 260 193 115 31 -3 -1 200 MB DIV 65 58 34 23 59 28 63 30 23 51 54 47 35 32 11 75 61 700-850 TADV -14 -10 -32 -20 -22 -18 16 -23 -42 -31 13 -2 0 6 36 60 57 LAND (KM) 1003 917 792 686 671 785 966 1084 1421 1239 1117 1248 1528 1565 1391 1347 1477 LAT (DEG N) 37.3 38.5 39.6 41.1 42.5 47.1 50.8 51.2 52.7 55.2 58.3 60.0 60.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.4 53.8 52.3 49.6 47.0 42.4 40.0 38.4 33.9 29.1 26.2 27.3 32.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 21 25 26 24 12 11 17 18 12 9 7 4 7 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 12 CX,CY: 9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -13. -22. -32. -42. -51. -57. -63. -67. -73. -75. -77. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -6. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -2. 1. -9. -18. -20. -16. -21. -27. -34. -39. -39. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -9. -19. -28. -29. -44. -55. -57. -55. -62. -72. -85. -97.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 37.3 55.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 10/03/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 10/03/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 10/03/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 8( 17) 5( 21) 3( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 82 81 79 76 66 57 56 41 30 28 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 83 81 78 68 59 58 43 32 30 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 79 76 66 57 56 41 30 28 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 72 62 53 52 37 26 24 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 56 47 46 31 20 18 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT