* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 10/03/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 84 82 80 71 59 58 46 32 27 27 25 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 85 84 82 80 71 59 58 46 32 27 27 25 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 82 78 76 74 67 58 50 43 41 45 50 53 51 50 49 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 9 14 30 29 22 17 24 21 17 15 6 3 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 5 5 1 15 0 4 4 5 -1 -3 2 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 136 164 229 237 212 197 204 175 220 201 199 204 187 170 150 241 261 SST (C) 26.3 25.7 25.8 26.0 23.7 19.5 15.5 12.6 12.3 11.6 11.6 10.7 9.0 8.8 8.9 8.6 7.7 POT. INT. (KT) 119 113 114 117 100 83 72 65 66 67 67 67 64 61 59 66 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 98 99 101 90 77 68 62 63 65 65 65 62 60 57 64 67 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -52.5 -51.5 -51.1 -49.6 -49.5 -48.3 -47.9 -48.4 -49.3 -50.1 -51.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.0 0.8 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 2.7 3.6 2.4 2.5 1.9 2.1 2.4 3.3 2.7 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 49 49 49 50 53 58 43 52 54 65 78 85 79 73 67 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 36 38 37 37 39 40 45 38 31 28 29 29 28 24 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 25 52 69 89 113 163 212 266 278 275 333 283 218 183 122 82 41 200 MB DIV 79 67 55 42 30 25 28 28 31 22 38 54 16 32 12 2 18 700-850 TADV -23 -27 -26 -44 -39 -59 7 -5 -19 -26 4 15 5 -1 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1010 962 867 760 693 703 945 1055 1247 1468 1183 1196 1425 1500 1476 1517 1261 LAT (DEG N) 36.8 37.9 38.9 40.0 41.0 45.1 49.5 51.7 51.8 52.9 55.7 58.8 62.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.6 55.1 53.6 51.6 49.6 44.3 40.1 39.0 36.2 32.1 28.2 27.3 29.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 19 23 27 19 9 11 15 16 16 10 5 2 17 25 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 15 CX,CY: 11/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -14. -23. -35. -46. -56. -62. -68. -73. -78. -81. -82. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. -3. -15. -19. -19. -19. -21. -25. -31. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 15. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -6. -8. -10. -19. -31. -32. -44. -58. -63. -63. -65. -73. -81. -89. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 36.8 56.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 10/03/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 414.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 10/03/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 10/03/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 9( 20) 7( 26) 4( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 85 84 82 80 71 59 58 46 32 27 27 25 17 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 88 86 84 75 63 62 50 36 31 31 29 21 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 82 73 61 60 48 34 29 29 27 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 69 57 56 44 30 25 25 23 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 62 50 49 37 23 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 85 76 70 67 60 48 47 35 21 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 85 84 75 69 65 53 52 40 26 21 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS