* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 10/03/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 98 97 94 87 77 76 63 48 37 31 33 28 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 101 98 97 94 87 77 76 63 48 37 31 33 28 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 99 93 87 84 76 70 61 49 43 44 50 57 55 52 50 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 8 2 7 17 32 30 11 20 25 21 18 11 8 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 -1 3 6 0 4 0 1 4 2 1 1 2 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 150 150 155 184 219 198 201 172 205 217 195 175 176 170 170 207 249 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 25.6 25.9 26.1 23.0 17.5 13.1 12.5 12.0 11.8 10.8 9.1 8.8 9.0 8.5 8.0 POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 112 115 118 97 77 68 65 67 67 68 65 62 61 66 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 102 97 98 103 88 73 65 62 64 65 66 63 61 59 65 68 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -51.9 -51.9 -50.3 -51.1 -50.8 -49.8 -50.7 -49.7 -50.9 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.3 2.1 3.4 2.9 3.4 3.4 2.8 2.0 2.6 3.5 3.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 48 52 49 48 50 57 50 49 57 66 74 86 87 75 79 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 37 37 37 36 37 41 50 44 36 31 28 31 32 27 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 6 15 47 70 88 142 188 253 289 284 285 293 272 256 135 107 152 200 MB DIV 80 65 61 59 33 40 24 55 27 26 53 64 53 26 30 29 -10 700-850 TADV 4 -25 -27 -30 -35 -36 -36 -6 -21 -31 -40 -33 7 -11 -5 3 -23 LAND (KM) 1075 1003 952 872 785 667 843 1022 1165 1399 1296 1195 1357 1435 1481 1540 1306 LAT (DEG N) 35.9 37.0 38.0 38.9 39.7 42.7 47.2 51.2 51.8 52.3 54.4 57.7 62.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.7 56.4 55.0 53.4 51.8 46.8 41.6 39.3 37.4 34.1 29.9 27.9 28.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 19 27 25 13 8 13 16 20 13 7 5 18 30 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 16 CX,CY: 9/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -19. -30. -44. -59. -72. -80. -87. -92. -97.-100.-101.-101. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -3. -0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 16. 8. -3. -11. -16. -12. -11. -17. -26. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 15. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -11. -18. -28. -29. -42. -57. -68. -74. -72. -77. -87. -98.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 35.9 57.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 10/03/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 484.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.43 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -4.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 10/03/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 10/03/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 21( 42) 16( 52) 10( 56) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 101 98 97 94 87 77 76 63 48 37 31 33 28 18 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 101 100 97 90 80 79 66 51 40 34 36 31 21 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 100 97 90 80 79 66 51 40 34 36 31 21 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 92 85 75 74 61 46 35 29 31 26 16 DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 79 69 68 55 40 29 23 25 20 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 101 92 86 83 78 68 67 54 39 28 22 24 19 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 101 98 89 83 79 69 68 55 40 29 23 25 20 DIS DIS DIS