* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 10/02/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 104 102 99 97 92 83 78 75 56 42 36 34 33 28 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 110 104 102 99 97 92 83 78 75 56 42 36 34 33 28 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 102 97 91 86 80 76 71 56 44 41 45 53 56 55 50 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 6 5 1 12 21 34 19 14 22 22 23 14 9 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 0 5 2 4 7 -1 6 8 6 3 0 -5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 150 169 177 123 180 220 194 196 165 221 204 186 181 174 133 176 219 SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.3 25.8 25.5 24.1 22.1 17.4 12.9 11.4 11.7 11.4 9.7 9.2 8.7 8.3 8.6 POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 118 113 111 103 93 77 67 65 67 69 66 63 64 62 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 102 101 97 97 91 84 71 64 63 65 66 64 61 62 60 62 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -52.7 -51.5 -51.3 -50.2 -51.3 -50.8 -51.5 -50.1 -49.4 -51.7 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.5 3.4 2.4 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 45 50 50 48 48 50 60 50 59 64 73 79 79 79 70 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 37 36 37 37 38 46 49 39 32 28 29 33 32 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 10 3 10 37 61 103 150 214 279 291 287 325 305 292 147 186 146 200 MB DIV 65 71 68 61 56 36 44 -13 30 38 47 60 44 19 30 29 11 700-850 TADV 2 2 -18 -31 -30 -25 -46 -18 -19 -43 -56 -27 -13 0 -1 16 -18 LAND (KM) 1130 1084 1006 980 911 724 748 984 1166 1370 1367 1154 1147 1262 1495 1443 1301 LAT (DEG N) 34.8 35.9 36.9 37.7 38.5 40.7 43.9 48.7 51.5 52.8 54.0 56.9 61.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.7 57.6 56.4 55.0 53.6 49.6 44.4 39.6 37.3 34.7 30.9 27.5 24.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 16 22 27 22 13 11 15 21 15 8 10 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 16 CX,CY: 8/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -10. -14. -20. -30. -45. -60. -74. -84. -91. -96.-102.-104.-106.-106. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 12. 17. 3. -8. -13. -13. -9. -10. -21. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -11. -13. -18. -27. -32. -35. -54. -68. -74. -76. -77. -82. -94. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 34.8 58.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 10/02/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 503.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -10.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 10/02/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 10/02/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 24( 46) 20( 57) 13( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 104 102 99 97 92 83 78 75 56 42 36 34 33 28 16 DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 107 104 102 97 88 83 80 61 47 41 39 38 33 21 DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 103 101 96 87 82 79 60 46 40 38 37 32 20 DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 98 93 84 79 76 57 43 37 35 34 29 17 DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 86 77 72 69 50 36 30 28 27 22 DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 104 95 89 86 82 73 68 65 46 32 26 24 23 18 DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 104 102 93 87 83 74 69 66 47 33 27 25 24 19 DIS DIS