* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 10/02/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 108 103 100 97 94 86 71 72 71 55 42 33 36 36 27 21 V (KT) LAND 115 108 103 100 97 94 86 71 72 71 55 42 33 36 36 27 21 V (KT) LGEM 115 105 97 92 89 82 75 69 65 55 45 42 47 54 56 53 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 11 7 10 7 14 32 31 13 21 24 29 27 14 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 1 -3 4 -2 0 0 0 8 6 6 6 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 162 149 166 157 144 211 211 191 183 175 208 197 196 181 178 167 209 SST (C) 26.6 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.0 26.0 23.4 18.4 13.7 11.4 11.3 11.3 10.2 9.1 9.0 8.6 8.6 POT. INT. (KT) 122 116 118 118 116 117 99 79 70 66 66 68 67 63 63 62 61 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 101 102 101 100 103 90 74 67 64 64 66 65 61 62 60 59 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -53.7 -53.4 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -50.4 -51.2 -52.2 -51.5 -48.9 -49.8 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.5 -0.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.3 3.9 1.8 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 44 45 49 51 47 51 59 59 42 54 68 72 70 75 78 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 34 34 35 37 35 35 45 48 39 31 27 34 37 30 26 850 MB ENV VOR 17 13 4 2 35 71 117 186 244 295 319 310 298 285 184 195 208 200 MB DIV 56 61 64 72 56 31 25 46 28 40 45 72 61 16 -12 31 22 700-850 TADV -5 10 6 -17 -21 -32 -50 -87 -27 -12 -30 -50 0 -7 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 1237 1160 1098 1041 993 818 696 830 1039 1283 1460 1196 1087 1163 1387 1469 1379 LAT (DEG N) 33.3 34.5 35.6 36.5 37.4 39.4 42.2 46.7 50.6 52.8 53.9 56.5 60.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.8 58.8 57.8 56.6 55.4 51.8 47.0 41.9 38.9 36.0 32.3 28.3 24.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 15 20 26 25 18 13 14 20 17 7 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 15 CX,CY: 6/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -4. -7. -11. -14. -21. -32. -47. -63. -78. -88. -96.-101.-107.-110.-112.-112. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -3. -4. -1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -0. 12. 16. 3. -9. -15. -6. -3. -11. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -15. -18. -21. -29. -44. -43. -44. -60. -73. -82. -79. -79. -88. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 33.3 59.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 10/02/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 516.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -13.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 10/02/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 10/02/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 25( 48) 20( 59) 16( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 108 103 100 97 94 86 71 72 71 55 42 33 36 36 27 21 18HR AGO 115 114 109 106 103 100 92 77 78 77 61 48 39 42 42 33 27 12HR AGO 115 112 111 108 105 102 94 79 80 79 63 50 41 44 44 35 29 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 102 99 91 76 77 76 60 47 38 41 41 32 26 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 93 85 70 71 70 54 41 32 35 35 26 20 IN 6HR 115 108 99 93 90 86 78 63 64 63 47 34 25 28 28 19 DIS IN 12HR 115 108 103 94 88 84 76 61 62 61 45 32 23 26 26 17 DIS