* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 10/02/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 107 99 95 93 90 83 68 62 69 55 42 35 27 27 27 25 V (KT) LAND 115 107 99 95 93 90 83 68 62 69 55 42 35 27 27 27 25 V (KT) LGEM 115 105 96 90 87 80 76 67 62 55 46 43 47 51 54 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 21 18 8 6 15 34 25 13 18 30 32 37 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 3 3 2 1 8 -2 4 7 12 13 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 186 170 165 174 162 199 227 195 206 179 215 201 196 199 214 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.0 26.4 26.4 25.4 24.4 18.4 17.0 14.3 13.8 12.7 12.5 10.9 9.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 120 115 119 119 111 105 79 74 68 69 70 70 68 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 105 100 103 103 97 94 74 68 64 65 68 68 66 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.0 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.1 -54.0 -52.3 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.4 -0.3 2.6 3.1 2.2 2.0 1.6 2.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 43 44 47 49 49 53 58 44 47 50 66 68 72 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 32 33 34 36 35 34 39 48 39 30 28 26 28 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 22 22 17 19 59 101 177 259 299 289 258 268 253 229 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 56 63 65 69 56 40 32 18 43 25 32 45 54 18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 -6 2 3 -23 -24 -44 -97 -22 4 -16 -15 0 -1 17 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1327 1215 1112 1066 1005 912 688 651 793 979 1223 1420 966 980 1168 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.1 33.4 34.6 35.7 36.7 38.5 40.9 45.1 48.7 50.3 50.6 52.5 56.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.0 60.3 59.6 58.4 57.1 54.2 50.1 45.0 42.2 39.7 36.3 31.2 24.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 17 24 24 16 11 15 23 24 20 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 15 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -10. -14. -21. -30. -46. -62. -77. -87. -94. -99.-105.-108.-108.-107. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -9. -10. -8. -7. -7. -7. -4. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. 5. 17. 4. -9. -12. -15. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 12. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -20. -22. -25. -32. -47. -53. -46. -60. -73. -80. -88. -88. -88. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 32.1 61.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 10/02/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 539.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -11.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 10/02/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 10/02/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 21( 45) 14( 53) 12( 59) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 107 99 95 93 90 83 68 62 69 55 42 35 27 27 27 25 18HR AGO 115 114 106 102 100 97 90 75 69 76 62 49 42 34 34 34 32 12HR AGO 115 112 111 107 105 102 95 80 74 81 67 54 47 39 39 39 37 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 103 100 93 78 72 79 65 52 45 37 37 37 35 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 93 86 71 65 72 58 45 38 30 30 30 28 IN 6HR 115 107 98 92 89 86 79 64 58 65 51 38 31 23 23 23 21 IN 12HR 115 107 99 90 84 80 73 58 52 59 45 32 25 17 17 17 15