* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 10/02/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 118 111 104 99 93 88 76 64 75 61 49 39 30 28 29 27 V (KT) LAND 125 118 111 104 99 93 88 76 64 75 61 49 39 30 28 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 125 115 104 96 90 83 80 74 68 61 49 44 46 50 53 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 17 18 16 15 15 15 24 35 23 14 27 35 37 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 1 -6 0 -2 5 -1 4 2 8 9 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 169 181 173 166 184 137 234 202 200 167 218 209 198 193 192 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 26.7 26.5 26.1 26.4 26.1 26.2 20.8 15.2 15.4 13.7 12.5 12.6 12.4 9.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 123 120 116 119 117 119 86 72 70 68 69 70 71 70 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 109 105 100 102 101 104 79 69 66 64 67 67 68 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.2 -53.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.4 2.8 2.5 1.5 2.1 1.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 46 46 47 51 51 55 58 46 46 49 61 69 77 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 30 33 33 33 34 36 35 38 53 44 36 31 28 29 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 23 10 10 13 39 70 127 226 272 280 259 282 295 275 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 49 48 63 66 61 25 26 47 64 28 33 66 65 26 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 1 -9 7 6 -41 -31 -95 -103 -1 3 -18 -8 2 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1430 1328 1199 1126 1064 971 792 622 699 866 1030 1373 1101 884 1035 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.7 32.2 33.6 34.7 35.7 37.5 39.6 42.7 46.9 49.7 50.9 52.0 53.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.5 60.8 60.0 59.1 58.3 55.7 52.2 47.6 43.6 41.2 39.1 34.4 26.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 14 13 13 16 20 24 21 12 12 20 21 25 29 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 2 2 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 16 CX,CY: 3/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -16. -24. -35. -52. -70. -86. -98.-106.-112.-118.-120.-120.-118. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -11. -8. -9. -6. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 0. 4. 23. 10. -1. -9. -13. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -21. -26. -32. -37. -49. -61. -50. -64. -76. -86. -95. -97. -96. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 30.7 61.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 10/02/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 584.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -17.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 10/02/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 10/02/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 29( 56) 21( 65) 14( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 118 111 104 99 93 88 76 64 75 61 49 39 30 28 29 27 18HR AGO 125 124 117 110 105 99 94 82 70 81 67 55 45 36 34 35 33 12HR AGO 125 122 121 114 109 103 98 86 74 85 71 59 49 40 38 39 37 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 110 104 99 87 75 86 72 60 50 41 39 40 38 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 100 95 83 71 82 68 56 46 37 35 36 34 IN 6HR 125 118 109 103 100 95 90 78 66 77 63 51 41 32 30 31 29 IN 12HR 125 118 111 102 96 92 87 75 63 74 60 48 38 29 27 28 26