* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 10/01/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 127 121 116 109 102 97 88 73 73 77 61 48 36 33 33 20 V (KT) LAND 130 127 121 116 109 102 97 88 73 73 77 61 48 36 33 33 20 V (KT) LGEM 130 124 113 103 94 85 81 78 71 67 57 46 43 46 50 49 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 15 16 18 8 6 10 37 35 10 12 26 40 39 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 1 1 3 1 5 1 10 0 1 6 11 9 3 9 SHEAR DIR 150 160 178 170 167 163 181 234 202 195 166 210 205 199 186 180 233 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 26.7 26.5 26.0 26.4 25.7 25.1 18.7 15.3 14.9 13.1 13.3 12.8 12.5 12.1 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 133 123 120 115 119 113 110 80 71 69 68 70 70 68 63 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 119 108 105 100 101 97 98 75 67 65 66 67 67 65 60 59 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.1 -54.3 -52.4 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.8 -51.4 -51.0 -50.2 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 2.3 3.2 2.5 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 3 2 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 51 49 46 44 49 49 50 56 56 46 52 57 63 65 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 33 33 34 34 35 37 36 36 47 54 43 35 29 29 31 22 850 MB ENV VOR 27 27 26 19 14 21 63 92 163 252 297 292 275 257 233 225 69 200 MB DIV 106 105 60 63 73 69 52 22 29 32 59 22 30 40 47 46 10 700-850 TADV 7 4 1 1 7 -22 -15 -34 -114 -61 13 -8 -8 17 -16 -41 11 LAND (KM) 1260 1428 1330 1219 1116 1021 979 775 597 717 868 1157 1451 1055 837 838 822 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 30.7 32.1 33.4 34.6 36.5 37.9 39.9 44.1 47.8 49.9 51.0 51.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.9 61.4 60.9 60.2 59.5 57.3 54.6 51.0 46.4 43.2 41.2 37.3 31.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 14 13 13 15 22 24 17 13 16 19 21 17 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 17 CX,CY: 0/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -25. -37. -53. -71. -88.-101.-110.-116.-122.-125.-127.-127. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -12. -12. -9. -4. -5. -4. 0. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 5. 5. 18. 27. 12. -0. -9. -9. -7. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -14. -21. -28. -33. -42. -57. -57. -53. -69. -82. -94. -97. -97.-110. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 29.2 61.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 10/01/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 641.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -18.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 10/01/21 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 10/01/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 34( 62) 28( 73) 24( 79) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 127 121 116 109 102 97 88 73 73 77 61 48 36 33 33 20 18HR AGO 130 129 123 118 111 104 99 90 75 75 79 63 50 38 35 35 22 12HR AGO 130 127 126 121 114 107 102 93 78 78 82 66 53 41 38 38 25 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 113 106 101 92 77 77 81 65 52 40 37 37 24 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 104 99 90 75 75 79 63 50 38 35 35 22 IN 6HR 130 127 118 112 109 105 100 91 76 76 80 64 51 39 36 36 23 IN 12HR 130 127 121 112 106 102 97 88 73 73 77 61 48 36 33 33 20