* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 10/01/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 128 125 120 115 106 102 92 80 68 76 74 62 48 38 38 34 V (KT) LAND 130 128 125 120 115 106 102 92 80 68 76 74 62 48 38 38 34 V (KT) LGEM 130 126 119 111 102 88 84 81 76 67 62 52 45 44 48 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 17 15 11 9 14 32 59 37 6 9 18 25 33 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 1 1 2 0 -2 -4 -2 4 2 2 7 4 4 5 SHEAR DIR 161 149 169 178 167 177 168 233 218 199 171 176 225 214 202 200 188 SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.8 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.3 25.7 19.0 15.3 15.1 13.6 15.9 13.4 12.9 12.2 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 138 136 125 120 118 118 114 80 73 71 68 72 71 70 66 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 123 121 112 105 101 101 99 74 69 67 64 67 68 67 63 61 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.2 -53.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.9 2.3 1.8 1.4 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 58 54 51 47 48 54 51 58 58 58 52 59 63 67 69 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 32 32 33 33 35 35 35 39 52 52 43 34 27 29 29 850 MB ENV VOR 17 25 26 18 9 15 43 85 134 218 253 311 305 277 264 256 238 200 MB DIV 83 95 90 66 59 83 52 40 25 32 30 62 21 56 45 78 52 700-850 TADV 4 5 11 0 -1 11 -39 -20 -88 -139 -57 15 -6 -26 3 3 -40 LAND (KM) 1103 1243 1385 1362 1224 1087 989 867 603 557 721 980 1263 1379 945 798 698 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 29.0 30.3 31.8 33.3 35.3 37.1 38.9 42.0 46.0 49.5 50.8 49.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.7 61.7 61.6 60.9 60.2 58.6 56.3 53.1 49.3 45.9 43.2 39.8 35.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 14 16 14 12 14 18 22 22 16 12 15 23 22 10 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 12 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 18 CX,CY: -1/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -22. -34. -51. -67. -84. -97.-106.-112.-119.-122.-124.-124. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -8. -4. -4. -6. -4. -2. 1. 4. 6. 4. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 5. 4. 9. 27. 26. 12. -0. -10. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -15. -24. -28. -37. -50. -62. -54. -56. -68. -82. -92. -92. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 27.6 61.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 10/01/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 640.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -11.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 10/01/21 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 10/01/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 38( 65) 31( 76) 27( 82) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 8 0( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 128 125 120 115 106 102 92 80 68 76 74 62 48 38 38 34 18HR AGO 130 129 126 121 116 107 103 93 81 69 77 75 63 49 39 39 35 12HR AGO 130 127 126 121 116 107 103 93 81 69 77 75 63 49 39 39 35 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 115 106 102 92 80 68 76 74 62 48 38 38 34 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 102 98 88 76 64 72 70 58 44 34 34 30 IN 6HR 130 128 119 113 110 105 101 91 79 67 75 73 61 47 37 37 33 IN 12HR 130 128 125 116 110 106 102 92 80 68 76 74 62 48 38 38 34