* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 10/01/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 129 126 124 120 110 106 97 90 80 89 79 66 56 48 42 38 V (KT) LAND 130 129 126 124 120 110 106 97 90 80 89 79 66 56 48 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 130 128 123 115 107 92 84 81 79 71 62 51 44 46 51 53 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 15 13 14 15 10 17 24 42 28 12 12 14 15 20 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 0 3 2 1 -2 -5 0 9 -5 -1 1 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 183 152 151 174 172 173 149 180 202 187 167 164 195 208 202 215 202 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 27.9 27.8 27.1 26.3 26.5 26.1 25.3 15.0 14.4 14.0 15.9 15.7 14.7 14.0 12.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 149 137 136 127 118 120 117 111 71 70 68 71 73 72 71 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 137 123 121 112 101 102 101 97 68 67 64 66 69 68 68 67 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -53.9 -53.5 -52.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.4 1.5 3.4 3.5 3.1 2.7 2.9 2.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 6 5 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 59 58 53 50 45 51 53 51 53 41 44 59 63 61 60 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 31 32 34 35 35 38 37 39 41 54 49 41 35 31 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 12 21 29 30 22 16 27 74 128 182 261 280 270 269 233 248 272 200 MB DIV 63 83 91 92 62 95 88 49 34 10 17 39 16 17 20 37 35 700-850 TADV 9 7 6 8 1 8 -22 -26 -43 -77 -40 19 -6 -14 -21 0 -4 LAND (KM) 929 1071 1222 1383 1357 1138 1060 961 727 529 524 680 858 1249 1270 884 787 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 27.4 28.9 30.3 31.7 34.2 35.9 37.6 40.2 43.1 46.3 48.4 49.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.6 61.9 62.1 61.6 61.2 60.0 58.0 55.7 52.1 48.7 46.2 43.7 41.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 14 12 12 16 19 19 16 11 13 21 21 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 29 21 13 12 5 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 15 CX,CY: -4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -18. -31. -47. -62. -78. -91.-100.-107.-114.-118.-120.-120. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -8. -5. -4. -4. -1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 8. 7. 10. 12. 30. 22. 10. 2. -5. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -10. -20. -24. -33. -40. -50. -41. -51. -64. -74. -82. -88. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 25.8 61.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 10/01/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 675.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -2.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 10/01/21 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 10/01/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 40( 66) 33( 77) 29( 84) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 24 1( 25) 0( 25) 0( 25) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 129 126 124 120 110 106 97 90 80 89 79 66 56 48 42 38 18HR AGO 130 129 126 124 120 110 106 97 90 80 89 79 66 56 48 42 38 12HR AGO 130 127 126 124 120 110 106 97 90 80 89 79 66 56 48 42 38 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 116 106 102 93 86 76 85 75 62 52 44 38 34 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 101 97 88 81 71 80 70 57 47 39 33 29 IN 6HR 130 129 120 114 111 106 102 93 86 76 85 75 62 52 44 38 34 IN 12HR 130 129 126 117 111 107 103 94 87 77 86 76 63 53 45 39 35