* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 10/01/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 125 122 121 114 108 101 94 85 72 77 89 75 63 50 36 V (KT) LAND 125 124 125 122 121 114 108 101 94 85 72 77 89 75 63 50 36 V (KT) LGEM 125 123 120 117 111 98 87 82 78 74 61 58 54 48 46 45 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 10 13 13 13 18 19 35 59 30 21 15 25 37 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 -2 0 2 2 -5 0 -8 -9 3 0 -6 -2 2 11 SHEAR DIR 163 184 169 136 165 172 190 165 204 206 200 185 177 190 220 213 210 SST (C) 29.5 29.1 28.9 28.0 27.8 26.6 26.2 26.6 25.5 23.6 14.2 13.3 12.6 17.0 15.4 15.1 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 155 152 138 136 121 117 121 111 98 70 67 66 74 71 68 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 144 139 125 121 105 100 102 96 87 67 64 63 69 67 64 62 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -52.2 -51.3 -51.0 -53.0 -53.4 -52.7 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 1.7 2.5 2.2 1.3 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 6 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 62 61 54 46 49 51 48 57 55 46 46 49 51 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 32 31 34 34 36 36 37 36 35 43 55 46 39 30 24 850 MB ENV VOR 25 12 20 28 34 23 20 50 78 119 215 279 262 271 262 231 132 200 MB DIV 65 66 70 104 92 71 90 53 24 30 42 52 20 26 52 30 43 700-850 TADV 3 9 11 11 5 7 7 -28 -14 -42 -134 -41 -12 -6 -6 7 0 LAND (KM) 825 924 1040 1194 1350 1263 1099 994 918 656 441 488 553 865 1317 1479 1403 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.7 27.1 28.6 30.0 32.7 34.9 36.7 38.4 40.9 44.2 46.7 48.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.0 61.5 62.0 61.8 61.7 61.0 59.2 57.5 54.9 51.6 48.7 46.5 45.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 14 13 12 12 15 19 17 12 10 17 17 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 49 30 24 13 13 2 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 13 CX,CY: -5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -1. -4. -12. -24. -39. -53. -65. -77. -86. -94.-101.-106.-109.-109. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -3. -1. -0. -2. -3. -1. 2. 4. 2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 12. 28. 14. 3. -7. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -3. -4. -11. -17. -24. -31. -40. -53. -48. -36. -50. -62. -75. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 24.3 61.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 10/01/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 606.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 10/01/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 10/01/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 38( 62) 34( 75) 30( 82) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 50 8( 54) 0( 54) 0( 54) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 124 125 122 121 114 108 101 94 85 72 77 89 75 63 50 36 18HR AGO 125 124 125 122 121 114 108 101 94 85 72 77 89 75 63 50 36 12HR AGO 125 122 121 118 117 110 104 97 90 81 68 73 85 71 59 46 32 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 114 107 101 94 87 78 65 70 82 68 56 43 29 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 99 93 86 79 70 57 62 74 60 48 35 21 IN 6HR 125 124 115 109 106 101 95 88 81 72 59 64 76 62 50 37 23 IN 12HR 125 124 125 116 110 106 100 93 86 77 64 69 81 67 55 42 28