* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/30/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 124 124 122 119 114 108 100 97 92 100 94 77 64 55 44 V (KT) LAND 125 124 124 124 122 119 114 108 100 97 92 100 94 77 64 55 44 V (KT) LGEM 125 125 125 122 118 107 94 84 81 78 77 72 57 46 43 45 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 9 12 13 11 10 10 12 23 41 20 17 22 25 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 -1 -3 1 3 -1 0 -2 12 11 1 -1 10 3 2 SHEAR DIR 168 174 189 165 142 182 169 171 168 207 187 206 174 200 222 221 229 SST (C) 28.9 29.6 29.2 29.0 28.0 27.3 26.5 26.5 26.2 25.7 24.3 22.0 17.8 17.8 16.0 13.6 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 164 157 154 138 129 120 120 117 113 102 89 76 76 72 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 153 145 141 125 113 104 103 100 96 88 78 70 70 68 65 64 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -53.6 -53.1 -51.9 -51.1 -52.2 -53.9 -54.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 -0.1 0.3 2.3 3.4 2.8 2.7 3.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 7 5 3 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 59 59 61 58 51 48 54 53 53 51 50 48 63 71 77 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 29 31 32 36 37 37 36 39 40 51 51 41 34 30 25 850 MB ENV VOR 18 19 16 20 25 15 15 13 72 124 179 239 288 284 264 276 275 200 MB DIV 66 60 65 79 97 72 85 74 64 25 41 35 30 70 70 105 87 700-850 TADV 3 5 10 7 9 10 20 -14 -11 -16 -14 9 -12 -23 -31 -31 -29 LAND (KM) 759 815 890 1032 1180 1375 1186 1044 959 856 728 646 663 896 1257 1491 1264 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 24.3 25.5 27.0 28.5 31.3 33.6 35.8 37.5 39.0 40.6 42.9 45.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.4 61.1 61.8 62.0 62.1 61.6 60.4 58.5 56.0 53.0 49.8 46.9 44.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 14 14 13 13 14 14 15 15 17 18 16 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 47 49 33 25 13 8 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -2. -10. -22. -36. -49. -62. -71. -79. -87. -94. -99.-103.-104. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -5. -1. 2. 6. 7. 6. 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 8. 7. 10. 11. 25. 24. 10. 0. -6. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -17. -25. -28. -33. -25. -31. -48. -61. -70. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 23.0 60.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/30/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 652.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.26 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 4.8% 2.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/30/21 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/30/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 36( 60) 34( 74) 33( 82) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 61 46( 79) 2( 79) 0( 79) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 124 124 124 122 119 114 108 100 97 92 100 94 77 64 55 44 18HR AGO 125 124 124 124 122 119 114 108 100 97 92 100 94 77 64 55 44 12HR AGO 125 122 121 121 119 116 111 105 97 94 89 97 91 74 61 52 41 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 113 110 105 99 91 88 83 91 85 68 55 46 35 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 103 98 92 84 81 76 84 78 61 48 39 28 IN 6HR 125 124 115 109 106 104 99 93 85 82 77 85 79 62 49 40 29 IN 12HR 125 124 124 115 109 105 100 94 86 83 78 86 80 63 50 41 30