* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/30/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 124 123 124 120 116 109 105 101 95 90 97 94 77 64 53 V (KT) LAND 125 124 124 123 124 120 116 109 105 101 95 90 97 94 77 64 53 V (KT) LGEM 125 123 122 123 120 111 99 88 83 80 78 74 71 59 49 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 9 7 11 15 10 6 2 5 24 31 19 22 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 -2 2 -2 -8 -3 3 0 5 3 SHEAR DIR 207 190 195 217 172 175 178 190 133 240 243 212 196 200 179 201 217 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 29.5 29.0 28.8 27.8 26.7 26.2 26.4 25.6 24.9 22.4 18.5 17.4 14.5 13.2 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 162 153 150 135 122 117 119 112 107 92 78 73 68 69 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 151 141 136 120 106 100 101 97 94 83 72 67 65 66 67 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.2 -54.2 -55.4 -57.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.3 2.0 2.5 1.7 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 6 4 3 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 54 58 59 60 55 49 49 58 58 66 68 64 63 67 71 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 30 29 32 34 37 36 38 39 38 38 48 50 42 35 27 850 MB ENV VOR 3 17 19 13 22 33 17 12 18 85 119 157 196 193 204 230 109 200 MB DIV 53 61 59 60 73 94 68 116 86 65 42 41 34 57 69 110 70 700-850 TADV 3 7 9 10 5 6 6 2 -19 -10 -17 -23 -13 -15 -37 -22 4 LAND (KM) 772 801 855 952 1062 1353 1282 1122 1029 957 780 655 744 917 1075 1380 1195 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 23.3 24.5 25.9 27.2 30.0 32.6 34.8 36.5 38.1 39.9 42.7 46.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.5 60.1 60.8 61.2 61.7 61.6 60.7 58.9 57.0 54.4 50.7 47.0 43.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 15 18 21 19 11 12 18 21 HEAT CONTENT 47 40 46 28 22 13 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. 0. -0. -2. -9. -20. -35. -48. -60. -69. -76. -84. -92. -97.-101.-102. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -1. 4. 8. 12. 12. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 8. 9. 10. 8. 7. 20. 22. 10. 0. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -2. -1. -5. -9. -16. -20. -24. -30. -35. -28. -31. -48. -61. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 22.1 59.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/30/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 723.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.18 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/30/21 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/30/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 36( 60) 36( 75) 33( 83) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 23 42( 55) 7( 58) 0( 58) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 124 124 123 124 120 116 109 105 101 95 90 97 94 77 64 53 18HR AGO 125 124 124 123 124 120 116 109 105 101 95 90 97 94 77 64 53 12HR AGO 125 122 121 120 121 117 113 106 102 98 92 87 94 91 74 61 50 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 116 112 108 101 97 93 87 82 89 86 69 56 45 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 102 98 91 87 83 77 72 79 76 59 46 35 IN 6HR 125 124 115 109 106 104 100 93 89 85 79 74 81 78 61 48 37 IN 12HR 125 124 124 115 109 105 101 94 90 86 80 75 82 79 62 49 38