* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/30/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 125 124 124 122 120 122 115 109 104 101 95 97 99 88 76 67 V (KT) LAND 125 125 124 124 122 120 122 115 109 104 101 95 97 99 88 76 67 V (KT) LGEM 125 126 124 121 118 114 111 97 85 82 79 75 68 60 52 49 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 7 8 7 7 14 11 5 10 12 34 32 17 5 5 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 4 0 3 1 6 -2 -1 -3 4 -4 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 197 198 187 194 199 128 187 175 216 162 191 191 205 158 157 245 216 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 25.4 24.5 20.5 19.9 18.8 17.3 15.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 145 148 147 142 138 123 119 118 110 104 83 80 76 74 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 134 137 135 128 121 106 102 101 95 90 74 72 69 68 66 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.0 -51.7 -50.9 -51.1 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.7 2.7 4.4 5.0 3.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 8 5 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 49 54 59 59 58 53 49 50 53 56 52 47 38 47 56 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 30 30 31 37 37 37 38 40 40 46 52 46 38 34 850 MB ENV VOR -1 1 13 17 13 28 29 24 23 55 97 151 216 270 299 297 325 200 MB DIV 44 46 60 59 53 108 69 111 69 64 32 18 6 47 24 21 -2 700-850 TADV -3 2 6 7 7 14 8 4 -3 -12 -23 -88 -36 2 4 -8 -2 LAND (KM) 782 759 759 822 901 1152 1428 1234 1120 1044 922 725 610 720 908 1133 1371 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 22.0 22.9 24.2 25.4 28.2 30.9 33.3 35.1 36.7 38.4 40.6 43.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.8 59.5 60.3 60.8 61.4 62.0 61.3 59.9 58.3 55.9 52.9 49.9 47.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 12 12 14 15 17 16 14 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 68 47 44 44 30 16 13 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -19. -33. -46. -57. -66. -73. -80. -88. -93. -97. -99. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -2. 1. 4. 8. 11. 10. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 11. 11. 11. 13. 15. 14. 21. 27. 18. 7. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -3. -10. -16. -21. -24. -30. -28. -26. -37. -49. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 21.0 58.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/30/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 753.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.15 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 2.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.7% 2.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/30/21 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/30/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 36( 60) 34( 74) 33( 82) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 28 50( 64) 34( 76) 5( 77) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 125 124 124 122 120 122 115 109 104 101 95 97 99 88 76 67 18HR AGO 125 124 123 123 121 119 121 114 108 103 100 94 96 98 87 75 66 12HR AGO 125 122 121 121 119 117 119 112 106 101 98 92 94 96 85 73 64 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 113 111 113 106 100 95 92 86 88 90 79 67 58 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 104 106 99 93 88 85 79 81 83 72 60 51 IN 6HR 125 125 116 110 107 104 106 99 93 88 85 79 81 83 72 60 51 IN 12HR 125 125 124 115 109 105 107 100 94 89 86 80 82 84 73 61 52