* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/30/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 126 125 125 123 119 118 115 110 105 101 95 87 87 95 82 70 V (KT) LAND 125 126 125 125 123 119 118 115 110 105 101 95 87 87 95 82 70 V (KT) LGEM 125 125 124 121 118 114 112 105 91 83 79 75 67 67 62 51 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 10 7 9 9 7 9 12 9 5 4 7 25 27 32 35 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 0 2 0 -1 4 2 -1 0 -1 -6 -6 1 4 5 SHEAR DIR 209 190 204 175 183 175 152 173 171 178 307 215 197 196 215 220 225 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.4 28.7 28.4 28.8 27.2 26.3 26.3 25.6 24.8 20.5 18.3 14.2 14.1 16.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 149 143 148 144 150 128 118 118 112 107 85 78 69 65 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 139 133 136 131 134 113 103 102 97 93 77 73 66 61 63 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.2 -54.1 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -54.7 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.9 1.3 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 6 4 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 48 49 55 58 59 56 51 48 57 55 60 60 65 59 59 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 25 28 30 30 33 36 37 37 38 36 34 39 50 44 37 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -4 1 11 21 19 37 33 29 36 75 117 168 232 226 237 285 200 MB DIV 52 44 41 57 51 69 103 69 103 72 74 42 71 31 39 29 91 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 3 4 9 5 8 1 -26 -13 -27 -55 -22 -28 -55 -37 LAND (KM) 838 774 728 759 814 1008 1298 1335 1137 1037 956 751 622 793 1112 1301 1330 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.1 21.8 23.0 24.1 26.7 29.5 32.1 34.6 36.6 38.1 40.3 43.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.0 58.9 59.8 60.3 60.9 61.8 61.7 60.7 59.0 56.4 53.5 50.1 46.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 15 19 21 22 15 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 71 67 50 44 46 22 19 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -18. -31. -43. -54. -63. -70. -77. -85. -91. -95. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 10. 11. 11. 7. 4. 9. 21. 13. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -0. -2. -6. -7. -10. -15. -20. -24. -30. -38. -38. -30. -43. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 20.3 58.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/30/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 800.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 4.4% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.2% 1.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 2.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/30/21 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/30/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 38( 62) 35( 75) 33( 83) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 38 47( 67) 62( 88) 15( 89) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 126 125 125 123 119 118 115 110 105 101 95 87 87 95 82 70 18HR AGO 125 124 123 123 121 117 116 113 108 103 99 93 85 85 93 80 68 12HR AGO 125 122 121 121 119 115 114 111 106 101 97 91 83 83 91 78 66 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 113 109 108 105 100 95 91 85 77 77 85 72 60 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 102 101 98 93 88 84 78 70 70 78 65 53 IN 6HR 125 126 117 111 108 107 106 103 98 93 89 83 75 75 83 70 58 IN 12HR 125 126 125 116 110 106 105 102 97 92 88 82 74 74 82 69 57