* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/29/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 115 115 115 113 114 113 108 101 100 93 89 86 93 89 73 V (KT) LAND 115 116 115 115 115 113 114 113 108 101 100 93 89 86 93 89 73 V (KT) LGEM 115 113 112 111 111 112 110 107 94 81 74 69 66 61 57 50 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 8 10 9 13 11 13 16 13 9 16 28 47 56 29 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 1 0 1 -4 3 4 0 2 1 8 21 10 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 189 174 207 215 186 204 148 177 157 166 180 200 206 250 245 235 223 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.3 28.1 26.8 26.5 26.3 25.8 24.1 17.4 19.2 19.3 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 149 145 147 142 139 123 120 117 113 99 73 78 79 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 138 139 134 135 128 123 107 102 99 95 85 68 71 72 77 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -54.4 -54.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -53.1 -51.7 -53.8 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.3 1.8 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 7 5 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 47 48 49 54 60 59 52 47 47 50 53 50 42 43 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 23 24 27 30 34 36 36 35 37 34 35 38 49 49 39 850 MB ENV VOR -8 0 -4 -2 11 14 36 37 47 41 63 86 124 186 192 226 173 200 MB DIV 31 39 45 39 61 41 94 81 77 62 55 28 36 12 4 3 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 5 5 1 1 -19 -9 -20 -27 -18 16 27 10 LAND (KM) 898 842 796 766 759 892 1160 1432 1227 1082 996 878 697 584 622 878 1258 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.5 21.1 22.0 22.9 25.3 28.2 30.8 33.3 35.5 37.1 38.8 40.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.3 58.0 58.7 59.5 60.3 61.4 61.8 61.4 60.1 58.3 56.1 54.0 51.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 12 12 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 13 14 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 64 69 66 47 44 32 16 13 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -13. -23. -32. -42. -49. -55. -61. -69. -74. -78. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 9. 9. 6. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 11. 9. 11. 7. 6. 9. 21. 20. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -0. 0. -2. -1. -2. -7. -14. -15. -22. -26. -29. -22. -26. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 19.8 57.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/29/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 767.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 3.5% 2.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 16.0% 13.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/29/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/29/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 31( 67) 30( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 60 74( 90) 91( 99) 71(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 116 115 115 115 113 114 113 108 101 100 93 89 86 93 89 73 18HR AGO 115 114 113 113 113 111 112 111 106 99 98 91 87 84 91 87 71 12HR AGO 115 112 111 111 111 109 110 109 104 97 96 89 85 82 89 85 69 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 105 103 104 103 98 91 90 83 79 76 83 79 63 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 94 95 94 89 82 81 74 70 67 74 70 54 IN 6HR 115 116 107 101 98 96 97 96 91 84 83 76 72 69 76 72 56 IN 12HR 115 116 115 106 100 96 97 96 91 84 83 76 72 69 76 72 56