* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/29/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 116 114 113 114 111 114 111 109 107 104 95 83 75 71 66 V (KT) LAND 115 114 116 114 113 114 111 114 111 109 107 104 95 83 75 71 66 V (KT) LGEM 115 113 112 111 110 111 111 108 100 88 79 73 63 51 45 43 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 6 11 8 10 10 14 17 14 11 23 52 71 61 61 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 0 2 1 0 -1 1 3 -1 -3 -13 -13 -1 -10 -2 SHEAR DIR 236 214 209 218 210 185 195 161 157 173 194 247 241 234 227 234 233 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.9 27.2 26.3 26.3 26.2 20.0 17.8 15.0 18.1 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 151 152 149 149 148 142 152 128 118 119 118 81 75 70 76 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 141 141 138 138 137 129 137 113 103 103 102 74 70 67 70 65 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -52.4 -51.6 -51.5 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 48 50 50 51 60 60 54 47 46 54 53 55 55 47 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 25 22 24 28 29 34 35 36 37 37 35 33 33 35 39 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -9 0 -6 -2 23 22 32 38 42 76 103 149 107 125 128 73 200 MB DIV 8 15 35 29 48 54 65 102 65 92 36 36 23 28 -7 0 -30 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -2 0 2 9 2 -4 0 -33 -22 -68 -107 -82 -107 -86 LAND (KM) 962 891 828 774 737 790 984 1270 1319 1136 1017 811 535 494 666 902 1152 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.7 20.3 21.1 21.8 23.9 26.5 29.3 32.2 34.7 36.9 39.4 42.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.6 57.4 58.1 58.9 59.7 61.0 61.9 61.9 60.9 58.8 56.1 53.4 50.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 13 14 15 15 15 16 17 17 16 16 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 60 65 72 67 50 49 22 20 5 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -12. -22. -30. -39. -47. -52. -59. -67. -73. -78. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 6. 3. -0. -5. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 12. 13. 15. 15. 14. 11. 7. 6. 8. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. -1. -2. -1. -4. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -20. -32. -40. -44. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 19.1 56.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/29/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 770.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 4.8% 3.2% 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 7.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/29/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/29/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 30( 67) 30( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 21( 27) 28( 47) 38( 67) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 114 116 114 113 114 111 114 111 109 107 104 95 83 75 71 66 18HR AGO 115 114 116 114 113 114 111 114 111 109 107 104 95 83 75 71 66 12HR AGO 115 112 111 109 108 109 106 109 106 104 102 99 90 78 70 66 61 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 104 105 102 105 102 100 98 95 86 74 66 62 57 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 97 94 97 94 92 90 87 78 66 58 54 49 IN 6HR 115 114 105 99 96 94 91 94 91 89 87 84 75 63 55 51 46 IN 12HR 115 114 116 107 101 97 94 97 94 92 90 87 78 66 58 54 49