* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/29/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 113 112 109 111 108 111 111 112 106 104 97 92 91 90 73 V (KT) LAND 115 113 113 112 109 111 108 111 111 112 106 104 97 92 91 90 73 V (KT) LGEM 115 113 110 108 107 107 109 107 101 90 82 74 67 60 61 56 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 3 5 10 5 15 11 12 14 13 18 18 29 47 28 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 -3 0 1 1 -1 1 0 4 1 0 9 13 8 15 SHEAR DIR 231 246 196 200 216 189 213 157 184 152 153 173 227 197 203 205 231 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.9 28.2 28.1 27.7 26.4 26.5 25.4 23.9 20.4 19.1 15.2 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 146 145 143 151 141 139 135 120 122 111 100 84 81 73 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 136 136 133 140 128 126 121 107 107 96 88 77 74 69 67 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -54.1 -53.8 -54.6 -54.2 -54.2 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.5 1.1 0.8 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.9 0.1 2.4 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 5 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 45 48 51 50 56 61 61 54 51 50 46 48 52 52 47 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 24 24 22 26 27 32 34 37 36 37 35 37 44 48 38 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -19 -11 0 -6 18 19 33 27 45 74 84 88 136 216 311 280 200 MB DIV 18 6 19 24 23 56 30 106 79 106 28 50 0 46 31 78 69 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -3 5 8 3 5 -4 -46 -21 -39 -41 -20 -50 -105 LAND (KM) 1025 962 893 825 768 729 868 1105 1419 1249 1058 867 672 648 873 1198 1463 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.1 19.5 20.2 20.9 22.7 25.1 27.7 30.5 33.4 36.4 38.9 41.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.9 56.6 57.3 58.1 58.9 60.5 61.5 61.9 61.2 59.2 56.4 53.4 50.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 18 18 17 18 21 23 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 53 60 64 71 67 52 29 16 11 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -13. -23. -32. -41. -47. -53. -59. -67. -72. -76. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 3. 5. 10. 13. 17. 15. 15. 12. 13. 20. 23. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -6. -4. -7. -4. -4. -3. -9. -11. -18. -23. -24. -25. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.6 55.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/29/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 789.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.11 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.0% 1.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 8.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/29/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/29/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 28( 65) 29( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 14 15( 27) 21( 42) 53( 73) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 113 113 112 109 111 108 111 111 112 106 104 97 92 91 90 73 18HR AGO 115 114 114 113 110 112 109 112 112 113 107 105 98 93 92 91 74 12HR AGO 115 112 111 110 107 109 106 109 109 110 104 102 95 90 89 88 71 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 102 104 101 104 104 105 99 97 90 85 84 83 66 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 98 95 98 98 99 93 91 84 79 78 77 60 IN 6HR 115 113 104 98 95 95 92 95 95 96 90 88 81 76 75 74 57 IN 12HR 115 113 113 104 98 94 91 94 94 95 89 87 80 75 74 73 56