* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/29/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 119 117 117 116 112 112 109 110 108 107 102 96 88 82 87 90 V (KT) LAND 120 119 117 117 116 112 112 109 110 108 107 102 96 88 82 87 90 V (KT) LGEM 120 118 116 114 112 108 108 106 102 95 86 77 67 53 48 52 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 11 5 8 9 11 12 16 18 14 25 47 53 42 29 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 -2 -4 2 2 1 -4 1 2 -2 -9 -2 -3 8 9 SHEAR DIR 233 234 254 235 184 207 182 219 171 175 165 182 212 207 200 241 194 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.3 27.9 26.7 26.8 25.4 20.5 14.4 11.8 14.2 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 145 147 145 144 148 142 137 123 125 112 83 69 67 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 135 137 135 133 135 130 123 111 112 98 75 65 65 69 69 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.9 -54.6 -54.3 -53.3 -52.2 -51.9 -48.7 -47.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.6 -0.2 2.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 46 46 50 51 52 60 62 55 50 48 46 50 55 42 43 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 23 23 24 27 29 32 34 36 35 35 35 37 44 54 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -25 -21 -12 1 -4 25 19 43 33 51 96 97 177 227 331 330 200 MB DIV 34 14 0 25 29 56 62 68 108 85 80 27 8 3 13 0 50 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 0 0 -2 3 14 -2 0 -6 -48 -60 -89 -73 29 27 LAND (KM) 1017 1026 963 882 807 725 778 964 1260 1344 1165 937 558 348 379 695 1224 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.3 21.9 23.9 26.3 29.2 32.1 35.1 38.3 41.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.3 56.0 56.6 57.5 58.3 59.9 61.2 61.9 61.9 60.4 57.4 54.7 52.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 14 15 17 20 19 17 13 16 24 27 HEAT CONTENT 43 55 60 65 72 45 51 23 13 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -16. -26. -35. -44. -52. -57. -64. -72. -79. -83. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 17. 16. 14. 13. 13. 20. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -4. -8. -8. -11. -10. -12. -13. -18. -24. -32. -38. -33. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 18.1 55.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/29/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 848.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.05 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 3.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/29/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/29/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 32( 54) 31( 69) 30( 78) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 9 6( 14) 17( 29) 25( 47) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 119 117 117 116 112 112 109 110 108 107 102 96 88 82 87 90 18HR AGO 120 119 117 117 116 112 112 109 110 108 107 102 96 88 82 87 90 12HR AGO 120 117 116 116 115 111 111 108 109 107 106 101 95 87 81 86 89 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 109 105 105 102 103 101 100 95 89 81 75 80 83 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 97 97 94 95 93 92 87 81 73 67 72 75 IN 6HR 120 119 110 104 101 99 99 96 97 95 94 89 83 75 69 74 77 IN 12HR 120 119 117 108 102 98 98 95 96 94 93 88 82 74 68 73 76