* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/28/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 113 113 113 110 107 104 105 105 100 100 97 90 76 61 44 V (KT) LAND 115 114 113 113 113 110 107 104 105 105 100 100 97 90 76 61 44 V (KT) LGEM 115 112 110 108 108 105 106 107 102 95 85 81 71 54 43 36 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 8 5 7 6 15 13 15 20 29 38 38 27 44 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 0 -1 0 0 2 -2 0 1 0 9 13 2 9 15 SHEAR DIR 216 230 238 213 202 227 210 216 177 186 176 175 178 177 168 222 242 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.9 28.1 27.9 27.3 26.2 26.2 23.3 13.7 12.7 11.3 9.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 145 147 142 151 139 137 130 119 119 98 72 70 67 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 133 136 137 132 139 127 124 116 106 106 88 69 68 65 64 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 -53.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.0 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -55.2 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 1.2 0.4 1.1 -0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 46 46 46 49 51 55 62 60 53 46 44 48 55 52 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 23 24 25 26 28 32 34 34 37 39 39 33 25 16 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -21 -20 -18 -8 -5 14 23 31 33 59 134 187 166 133 57 97 200 MB DIV 28 38 11 1 17 28 50 52 100 99 89 68 66 17 52 49 49 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 2 10 8 -13 2 -20 -3 -4 -23 -5 20 LAND (KM) 1024 1021 1025 952 877 767 737 877 1147 1463 1211 965 633 324 529 877 1156 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.2 19.8 21.1 22.8 25.2 28.0 30.9 33.9 37.3 41.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.7 55.3 55.9 56.7 57.5 59.0 60.5 61.5 61.6 60.6 58.9 56.4 53.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 10 10 10 11 13 15 16 18 21 23 24 22 17 14 HEAT CONTENT 35 44 53 60 65 63 52 28 15 7 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -13. -23. -31. -39. -46. -50. -56. -64. -70. -75. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 7. 6. 4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 9. 12. 10. 14. 16. 15. 6. -5. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -7. -11. -10. -10. -15. -15. -18. -25. -39. -54. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.7 54.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/28/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 841.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 4.4% 3.5% 2.6% 1.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 1.6% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 10.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/28/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/28/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 30( 66) 29( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 19 31( 44) 24( 58) 30( 70) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 114 113 113 113 110 107 104 105 105 100 100 97 90 76 61 44 18HR AGO 115 114 113 113 113 110 107 104 105 105 100 100 97 90 76 61 44 12HR AGO 115 112 111 111 111 108 105 102 103 103 98 98 95 88 74 59 42 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 105 102 99 96 97 97 92 92 89 82 68 53 36 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 93 90 87 88 88 83 83 80 73 59 44 27 IN 6HR 115 114 105 99 96 92 89 86 87 87 82 82 79 72 58 43 26 IN 12HR 115 114 113 104 98 94 91 88 89 89 84 84 81 74 60 45 28