* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/28/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 116 114 113 111 107 104 103 102 98 97 94 83 79 83 86 V (KT) LAND 115 116 116 114 113 111 107 104 103 102 98 97 94 83 79 83 86 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 112 110 108 108 106 105 101 97 88 80 70 55 48 50 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 2 5 6 6 11 9 12 21 19 29 47 68 53 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 3 2 -2 0 2 0 -5 0 -3 -11 -9 -7 4 2 SHEAR DIR 232 210 236 239 215 256 234 196 202 181 183 182 202 208 193 211 217 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.7 26.5 26.4 23.4 14.4 9.7 10.8 9.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 141 143 143 145 145 145 141 135 122 122 99 72 67 67 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 130 132 133 135 134 133 128 121 110 110 89 69 66 65 64 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.5 -54.3 -53.9 -52.0 -51.6 -49.7 -48.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 48 47 47 47 52 53 63 59 50 46 45 50 57 53 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 20 23 26 27 28 31 33 34 36 36 35 37 44 52 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -23 -17 -16 -14 3 -1 26 25 38 38 71 133 149 243 265 246 200 MB DIV 7 22 31 10 -2 29 43 49 70 92 85 49 28 8 29 35 -12 700-850 TADV 2 1 -1 -2 -2 0 1 7 16 0 2 -26 -53 -69 -53 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1044 1039 1039 1043 984 840 758 823 1031 1340 1282 1000 635 199 288 583 759 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.2 20.4 22.0 24.2 26.8 29.7 32.9 36.7 41.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.0 54.6 55.1 55.8 56.4 58.0 59.6 60.9 61.5 61.1 59.7 57.3 54.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 19 23 24 22 20 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 32 35 42 53 59 69 44 42 18 13 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -23. -31. -39. -45. -50. -55. -63. -69. -74. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 13. 13. 9. 10. 18. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -13. -17. -18. -21. -32. -36. -32. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.3 54.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/28/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 839.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 4.6% 3.9% 2.3% 0.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 7.7% 1.2% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 1.9% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 9.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/28/21 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 14 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/28/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 30( 67) 29( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 11 30( 38) 19( 50) 41( 70) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 116 116 114 113 111 107 104 103 102 98 97 94 83 79 83 86 18HR AGO 115 114 114 112 111 109 105 102 101 100 96 95 92 81 77 81 84 12HR AGO 115 112 111 109 108 106 102 99 98 97 93 92 89 78 74 78 81 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 104 102 98 95 94 93 89 88 85 74 70 74 77 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 94 90 87 86 85 81 80 77 66 62 66 69 IN 6HR 115 116 107 101 98 96 92 89 88 87 83 82 79 68 64 68 71 IN 12HR 115 116 116 107 101 97 93 90 89 88 84 83 80 69 65 69 72