* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/28/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 115 113 110 107 106 105 103 105 103 103 99 92 81 73 56 V (KT) LAND 115 116 115 113 110 107 106 105 103 105 103 103 99 92 81 73 56 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 110 107 104 102 104 105 104 99 94 86 77 60 46 40 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 6 4 6 7 9 9 13 13 18 26 44 47 44 40 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 3 4 -1 0 -1 3 -2 2 0 -8 5 15 7 12 SHEAR DIR 221 205 208 204 205 229 220 204 217 171 189 165 180 176 180 147 220 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.2 26.2 24.5 15.7 11.3 10.3 9.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 137 138 138 142 141 146 143 138 130 121 106 73 68 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 126 126 127 127 132 131 135 131 124 118 111 96 69 66 66 66 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 -53.8 -54.3 -54.1 -53.3 -52.0 -50.3 -50.3 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.9 -0.3 0.5 2.7 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 47 47 47 48 48 53 59 60 53 44 41 49 52 50 44 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 22 22 24 27 29 30 34 34 37 37 38 35 35 27 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -22 -19 -15 -13 -3 -1 17 24 38 46 83 143 182 191 249 214 200 MB DIV 11 1 15 23 2 28 36 62 46 85 61 67 53 26 24 60 67 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 -1 -1 0 -1 6 11 8 0 -20 -73 -5 51 -61 -59 LAND (KM) 1054 1056 1064 1051 1034 912 780 767 910 1156 1414 1092 765 290 128 424 817 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.8 20.0 21.4 23.2 25.6 28.2 31.2 35.2 39.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.6 54.1 54.6 55.3 55.9 57.2 59.0 60.5 61.6 61.9 61.0 58.7 55.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 10 11 12 13 14 19 25 25 21 19 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 34 45 53 61 53 49 28 15 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -16. -25. -32. -39. -45. -49. -54. -62. -68. -73. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 12. 13. 16. 15. 15. 10. 8. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -10. -12. -12. -16. -23. -34. -42. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.0 53.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/28/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 841.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 3.0% 2.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 4.5% 1.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 1.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 12.0% 10.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/28/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/28/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 29( 66) 27( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 12 21( 30) 28( 50) 25( 62) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 116 115 113 110 107 106 105 103 105 103 103 99 92 81 73 56 18HR AGO 115 114 113 111 108 105 104 103 101 103 101 101 97 90 79 71 54 12HR AGO 115 112 111 109 106 103 102 101 99 101 99 99 95 88 77 69 52 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 102 99 98 97 95 97 95 95 91 84 73 65 48 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 93 92 91 89 91 89 89 85 78 67 59 42 IN 6HR 115 116 107 101 98 96 95 94 92 94 92 92 88 81 70 62 45 IN 12HR 115 116 115 106 100 96 95 94 92 94 92 92 88 81 70 62 45