* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/27/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 102 101 102 100 97 96 98 99 102 106 109 114 99 78 61 V (KT) LAND 105 103 102 101 102 100 97 96 98 99 102 106 109 114 99 78 61 V (KT) LGEM 105 100 97 95 94 94 93 96 98 99 97 93 85 73 56 39 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 8 8 4 7 7 12 6 13 16 28 38 43 41 24 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 2 2 5 2 -1 -1 2 4 3 5 5 10 1 7 10 SHEAR DIR 238 207 231 234 242 218 211 230 220 225 204 219 213 228 204 234 269 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.4 28.9 28.5 28.4 27.8 26.2 26.8 23.8 17.2 12.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 138 137 137 139 144 143 151 145 144 137 119 125 99 74 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 132 128 126 127 128 134 132 140 131 130 124 107 110 87 69 65 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -54.3 -54.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 4 2 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 48 46 47 46 46 48 50 53 56 61 54 43 29 25 39 51 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 22 23 24 26 28 30 32 36 41 48 41 27 17 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -23 -20 -20 -21 -10 -7 2 11 28 47 91 123 80 53 54 66 200 MB DIV 13 4 -9 0 24 5 32 21 64 47 107 82 60 5 25 28 47 700-850 TADV 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 5 14 15 7 2 11 -17 -3 31 LAND (KM) 1095 1076 1063 1048 1039 1034 888 753 722 828 1038 1369 1138 887 655 336 33 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.7 19.8 21.0 22.8 24.9 27.3 30.3 34.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.4 53.0 53.5 54.1 54.6 55.9 57.4 59.1 60.7 61.9 62.6 62.1 60.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 10 11 12 12 13 18 20 19 17 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 53 43 35 31 33 52 65 63 54 37 24 13 1 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -11. -18. -23. -28. -32. -34. -39. -43. -48. -53. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 15. 21. 28. 17. -1. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -3. -5. -8. -9. -7. -5. -3. 1. 4. 9. -6. -27. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.0 52.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/27/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 803.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 3.1% 3.1% 2.6% 1.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 2.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/27/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/27/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 24( 45) 24( 58) 22( 67) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 48 26( 62) 31( 73) 47( 86) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 103 102 101 102 100 97 96 98 99 102 106 109 114 99 78 61 18HR AGO 105 104 103 102 103 101 98 97 99 100 103 107 110 115 100 79 62 12HR AGO 105 102 101 100 101 99 96 95 97 98 101 105 108 113 98 77 60 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 96 94 91 90 92 93 96 100 103 108 93 72 55 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 84 81 80 82 83 86 90 93 98 83 62 45 IN 6HR 105 103 94 88 85 82 79 78 80 81 84 88 91 96 81 60 43 IN 12HR 105 103 102 93 87 83 80 79 81 82 85 89 92 97 82 61 44