* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/27/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 106 105 105 105 104 101 99 96 103 104 108 104 105 106 99 86 V (KT) LAND 110 106 105 105 105 104 101 99 96 103 104 108 104 105 106 99 86 V (KT) LGEM 110 103 100 98 97 95 95 95 96 97 95 93 86 77 71 59 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 1 6 6 5 4 8 8 13 7 9 25 23 38 37 44 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 2 3 0 0 -1 0 2 7 -2 5 10 19 11 1 SHEAR DIR 245 245 201 228 229 269 243 229 240 213 209 190 195 221 244 250 223 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.0 26.7 26.0 25.5 20.9 15.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 142 140 137 138 139 144 145 146 143 139 123 117 112 84 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 133 130 127 127 129 135 134 135 130 125 111 103 97 76 67 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.4 -54.2 -53.0 -52.0 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 1.8 3.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 50 49 48 47 47 49 53 55 61 62 50 37 23 33 54 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 26 26 31 31 35 35 40 44 44 37 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -25 -23 -23 -22 -17 -7 2 6 25 22 40 85 168 225 209 237 200 MB DIV 20 15 3 -5 10 26 10 45 55 77 95 104 61 48 45 44 20 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 0 0 -2 0 0 5 9 16 -5 -2 0 14 37 17 LAND (KM) 1107 1100 1076 1058 1045 1037 993 835 737 775 935 1215 1299 1012 793 591 258 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.2 18.1 19.0 20.2 21.8 23.8 26.1 28.9 32.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.7 52.3 52.8 53.3 53.9 55.0 56.3 58.0 59.7 61.1 62.1 62.3 61.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 11 12 12 13 15 17 18 17 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 55 54 47 38 32 38 56 72 47 56 28 15 4 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -13. -21. -27. -33. -37. -40. -44. -49. -53. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 10. 10. 14. 14. 19. 22. 20. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -14. -7. -6. -2. -6. -5. -4. -11. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.4 51.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/27/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 814.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/27/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/27/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 27( 62) 26( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 8 16( 23) 8( 29) 16( 40) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 106 105 105 105 104 101 99 96 103 104 108 104 105 106 99 86 18HR AGO 110 109 108 108 108 107 104 102 99 106 107 111 107 108 109 102 89 12HR AGO 110 107 106 106 106 105 102 100 97 104 105 109 105 106 107 100 87 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 100 99 96 94 91 98 99 103 99 100 101 94 81 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 90 87 85 82 89 90 94 90 91 92 85 72 IN 6HR 110 106 97 91 88 86 83 81 78 85 86 90 86 87 88 81 68 IN 12HR 110 106 105 96 90 86 83 81 78 85 86 90 86 87 88 81 68