* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/27/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 115 114 113 113 111 107 102 102 104 104 110 109 103 106 108 98 V (KT) LAND 120 115 114 113 113 111 107 102 102 104 104 110 109 103 106 108 98 V (KT) LGEM 120 114 110 107 104 100 100 100 100 97 97 96 91 80 72 65 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 5 3 5 4 8 10 12 8 10 15 28 29 36 39 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 3 2 1 -1 0 4 5 2 4 3 11 11 0 SHEAR DIR 232 232 236 203 229 275 242 244 224 216 225 185 217 214 246 237 225 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.2 28.0 26.1 26.0 25.6 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 144 144 141 139 141 145 140 141 146 141 139 117 116 113 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 135 134 132 129 131 136 130 130 134 128 124 103 103 99 70 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0 -54.6 -53.5 -52.1 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.3 2.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 5 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 50 50 52 51 50 49 50 52 56 57 61 57 43 23 18 24 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 20 21 23 24 24 27 30 31 35 39 37 43 47 42 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -21 -21 -20 -21 -19 -14 -7 5 15 24 37 68 121 81 90 203 200 MB DIV 45 21 18 17 0 18 2 29 44 78 77 100 78 31 -5 -26 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 15 7 -2 -4 -12 -39 5 LAND (KM) 1081 1112 1098 1072 1050 1030 1019 902 763 722 816 1024 1329 1194 958 720 434 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.4 21.0 22.6 24.6 27.1 30.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.1 51.7 52.3 52.8 53.4 54.5 55.7 57.2 59.0 60.5 61.6 62.4 62.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 10 11 11 12 14 15 15 18 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 47 53 54 47 38 32 48 65 60 36 44 22 16 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -17. -27. -35. -43. -48. -51. -55. -60. -64. -67. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 8. 11. 11. 17. 20. 17. 22. 25. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -13. -18. -18. -16. -16. -10. -11. -17. -14. -12. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 15.0 51.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/27/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 849.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.05 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/27/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/27/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 30( 53) 30( 67) 29( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 16( 20) 17( 34) 11( 41) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 115 114 113 113 111 107 102 102 104 104 110 109 103 106 108 98 18HR AGO 120 119 118 117 117 115 111 106 106 108 108 114 113 107 110 112 102 12HR AGO 120 117 116 115 115 113 109 104 104 106 106 112 111 105 108 110 100 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 110 108 104 99 99 101 101 107 106 100 103 105 95 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 99 95 90 90 92 92 98 97 91 94 96 86 IN 6HR 120 115 106 100 97 97 93 88 88 90 90 96 95 89 92 94 84 IN 12HR 120 115 114 105 99 95 91 86 86 88 88 94 93 87 90 92 82