* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/27/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 128 126 124 122 118 113 105 103 98 100 101 100 98 96 96 99 V (KT) LAND 130 128 126 124 122 118 113 105 103 98 100 101 100 98 96 96 99 V (KT) LGEM 130 126 120 115 112 108 105 103 103 100 97 95 91 85 76 70 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 6 4 3 5 5 13 11 14 13 9 19 19 21 35 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 0 1 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 7 1 0 1 0 10 SHEAR DIR 223 242 248 249 196 291 290 244 220 234 212 221 186 167 183 185 201 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.2 28.4 28.5 27.8 27.8 26.3 26.6 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 141 144 144 141 141 142 144 140 143 145 136 136 120 123 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 133 135 135 131 131 132 134 129 131 134 123 121 106 107 86 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -54.2 -53.9 -53.4 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 7 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 51 50 50 51 51 50 51 52 54 54 58 61 52 42 43 43 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 21 21 23 25 25 27 28 33 35 36 36 36 39 47 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -18 -17 -20 -20 -17 -14 -5 2 10 25 39 37 47 91 171 215 200 MB DIV 51 56 16 18 19 11 23 16 55 67 68 85 65 82 67 39 43 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 4 7 16 6 3 -4 -23 50 LAND (KM) 1046 1067 1093 1083 1055 1007 1013 981 812 712 731 861 1123 1271 1050 818 579 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.9 17.9 18.8 20.1 21.5 23.2 25.4 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.6 51.2 51.8 52.3 52.9 54.1 55.1 56.4 58.2 59.8 61.0 62.2 63.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 14 15 16 18 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 44 46 51 52 47 34 37 57 75 37 54 35 17 23 2 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -12. -22. -34. -44. -53. -59. -62. -66. -70. -75. -78. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 17. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 13. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -17. -25. -27. -32. -30. -29. -30. -32. -34. -34. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 14.5 50.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/27/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 914.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 3.3% 2.5% 2.3% 1.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/27/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/27/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 40( 66) 34( 77) 32( 85) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 17 23( 36) 42( 63) 20( 70) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 128 126 124 122 118 113 105 103 98 100 101 100 98 96 96 99 18HR AGO 130 129 127 125 123 119 114 106 104 99 101 102 101 99 97 97 100 12HR AGO 130 127 126 124 122 118 113 105 103 98 100 101 100 98 96 96 99 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 118 114 109 101 99 94 96 97 96 94 92 92 95 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 107 102 94 92 87 89 90 89 87 85 85 88 IN 6HR 130 128 119 113 110 107 102 94 92 87 89 90 89 87 85 85 88 IN 12HR 130 128 126 117 111 107 102 94 92 87 89 90 89 87 85 85 88