* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/26/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 129 125 124 121 117 114 108 104 99 94 96 98 102 101 101 101 V (KT) LAND 130 129 125 124 121 117 114 108 104 99 94 96 98 102 101 101 101 V (KT) LGEM 130 126 120 115 112 109 107 107 105 101 95 90 87 84 77 70 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 10 7 3 2 3 7 10 22 18 18 13 22 30 35 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -2 -1 1 0 0 -1 -4 0 4 5 6 4 4 -11 SHEAR DIR 211 227 238 247 268 211 334 248 251 236 242 251 208 214 202 201 190 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.5 28.2 26.8 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 141 143 144 142 143 143 145 141 142 146 145 142 125 122 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 135 134 135 135 133 133 133 136 131 131 135 132 127 112 109 107 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 5 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 52 53 53 50 50 53 53 56 61 55 41 27 28 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 17 19 20 21 23 24 27 28 28 31 34 38 38 40 44 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -14 -19 -20 -24 -18 -22 -16 -9 7 15 26 24 40 71 139 145 200 MB DIV 34 40 37 14 5 6 17 16 34 46 56 52 61 51 57 52 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 0 1 0 1 0 0 6 8 12 5 2 -19 -23 -10 LAND (KM) 1007 1019 1037 1070 1044 989 969 973 846 714 685 770 960 1264 1121 857 640 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.3 17.2 18.1 19.0 20.5 22.3 24.4 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.3 50.9 51.5 52.1 52.7 53.8 54.9 56.0 57.7 59.3 60.7 62.1 63.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 10 11 12 13 14 15 18 21 23 HEAT CONTENT 44 44 44 49 50 40 35 47 61 64 32 47 41 26 5 2 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -21. -33. -43. -52. -58. -61. -64. -69. -72. -75. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 2. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 16. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 10. 13. 17. 15. 16. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -6. -8. -13. -16. -22. -26. -31. -36. -34. -32. -28. -29. -29. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 14.0 50.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/26/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 839.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 2.4% 1.5% 1.3% 0.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 8.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/26/21 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/26/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 38( 65) 34( 77) 32( 84) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 27 28( 47) 44( 71) 41( 83) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 129 125 124 121 117 114 108 104 99 94 96 98 102 101 101 101 18HR AGO 130 129 125 124 121 117 114 108 104 99 94 96 98 102 101 101 101 12HR AGO 130 127 126 125 122 118 115 109 105 100 95 97 99 103 102 102 102 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 117 113 110 104 100 95 90 92 94 98 97 97 97 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 107 104 98 94 89 84 86 88 92 91 91 91 IN 6HR 130 129 120 114 111 107 104 98 94 89 84 86 88 92 91 91 91 IN 12HR 130 129 125 116 110 106 103 97 93 88 83 85 87 91 90 90 90