* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/26/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 122 118 117 114 110 107 105 102 101 105 105 105 100 97 93 V (KT) LAND 125 124 122 118 117 114 110 107 105 102 101 105 105 105 100 97 93 V (KT) LGEM 125 121 116 111 108 105 104 104 104 102 97 92 90 89 84 74 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 7 10 8 4 5 6 11 13 18 11 8 14 21 53 76 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -4 -3 1 5 0 -5 -6 -16 SHEAR DIR 230 213 225 242 264 287 267 312 243 237 252 229 206 188 192 216 228 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.4 28.5 27.9 26.4 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 142 141 144 144 143 143 145 144 140 143 146 139 121 125 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 135 134 136 134 133 133 135 133 130 132 135 129 110 109 105 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 7 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 54 55 55 54 52 53 51 51 52 54 55 59 61 57 59 57 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 18 19 21 22 23 26 27 29 33 35 36 36 38 40 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -20 -16 -20 -23 -22 -24 -23 -20 -1 6 28 26 -1 -7 96 114 200 MB DIV 33 28 23 31 18 25 2 34 26 40 45 45 62 61 88 36 6 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 0 1 -1 -2 -1 4 9 12 13 -5 -45 -82 LAND (KM) 1001 1005 1014 1039 1052 998 976 962 918 777 674 704 857 1217 1107 757 540 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.9 16.8 17.7 18.7 19.9 21.3 23.2 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.0 50.6 51.2 51.8 52.4 53.4 54.4 55.6 57.0 58.5 60.1 61.4 62.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 15 20 21 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 43 45 48 45 35 41 60 70 36 56 37 15 1 10 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -18. -29. -38. -46. -52. -55. -58. -61. -65. -68. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 1. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 17. 18. 16. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 13. 15. 15. 14. 14. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -23. -24. -20. -20. -20. -25. -28. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 13.8 50.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/26/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 779.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.12 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 1.7% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 1.3% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/26/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/26/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 34( 59) 32( 72) 30( 81) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 17 28( 40) 22( 53) 38( 71) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 124 122 118 117 114 110 107 105 102 101 105 105 105 100 97 93 18HR AGO 125 124 122 118 117 114 110 107 105 102 101 105 105 105 100 97 93 12HR AGO 125 122 121 117 116 113 109 106 104 101 100 104 104 104 99 96 92 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 114 111 107 104 102 99 98 102 102 102 97 94 90 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 103 99 96 94 91 90 94 94 94 89 86 82 IN 6HR 125 124 115 109 106 104 100 97 95 92 91 95 95 95 90 87 83 IN 12HR 125 124 122 113 107 103 99 96 94 91 90 94 94 94 89 86 82