* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/26/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 122 118 113 110 109 107 104 100 97 99 101 104 103 104 102 V (KT) LAND 125 124 122 118 113 110 109 107 104 100 97 99 101 104 103 104 102 V (KT) LGEM 125 123 118 113 108 105 104 103 104 102 97 94 93 88 82 72 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 10 12 4 4 7 8 12 18 15 16 24 36 34 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 -3 -2 -1 5 8 5 -3 4 SHEAR DIR 235 234 229 234 253 290 255 325 262 237 242 239 222 194 212 210 243 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.1 28.6 28.6 28.2 27.7 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 141 140 141 144 141 141 143 146 138 147 147 142 136 119 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 133 132 132 135 131 132 133 136 127 137 136 130 122 106 103 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -54.1 -55.4 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 7 6 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 57 55 54 55 54 54 55 53 52 53 56 58 63 56 37 26 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 19 19 18 20 23 24 26 26 27 30 33 38 39 42 43 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -24 -24 -18 -25 -26 -24 -31 -25 -16 -1 14 40 86 92 -45 -21 200 MB DIV 27 37 25 34 20 33 10 24 14 45 58 54 63 72 36 -5 45 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -5 -2 0 1 1 -1 -1 1 10 17 15 5 -16 50 LAND (KM) 1019 1031 1046 1060 1077 1052 1024 994 981 834 725 699 837 1123 1257 927 522 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.9 16.8 17.6 18.6 19.7 20.8 22.6 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.4 50.0 50.6 51.1 51.6 52.8 53.8 55.0 56.4 57.9 59.3 60.8 62.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 13 15 17 18 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 37 39 38 39 43 46 35 35 53 70 41 37 38 18 23 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -10. -19. -30. -39. -47. -53. -56. -58. -62. -65. -68. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 16. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 11. 14. 18. 18. 20. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -12. -15. -16. -18. -21. -25. -28. -26. -24. -21. -22. -21. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 13.7 49.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/26/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 754.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.15 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 10.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/26/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/26/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 34( 59) 30( 71) 29( 80) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 54 61( 82) 61( 93) 78( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 124 122 118 113 110 109 107 104 100 97 99 101 104 103 104 102 18HR AGO 125 124 122 118 113 110 109 107 104 100 97 99 101 104 103 104 102 12HR AGO 125 122 121 117 112 109 108 106 103 99 96 98 100 103 102 103 101 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 110 107 106 104 101 97 94 96 98 101 100 101 99 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 103 102 100 97 93 90 92 94 97 96 97 95 IN 6HR 125 124 115 109 106 104 103 101 98 94 91 93 95 98 97 98 96 IN 12HR 125 124 122 113 107 103 102 100 97 93 90 92 94 97 96 97 95