* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/26/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 128 127 124 120 115 112 109 102 97 96 92 96 97 99 99 97 V (KT) LAND 125 128 127 124 120 115 112 109 102 97 96 92 96 97 99 99 97 V (KT) LGEM 125 126 123 118 114 108 106 103 101 98 95 92 88 85 83 79 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 7 6 7 10 4 7 10 18 12 20 16 10 29 41 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 -3 0 -2 -3 -4 1 0 4 12 10 23 9 SHEAR DIR 224 249 256 245 250 269 289 301 294 261 243 246 225 200 202 197 200 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.3 28.3 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 141 141 142 144 141 143 145 142 141 146 143 144 126 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 135 133 132 134 136 131 133 136 133 130 135 133 131 111 108 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.5 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 57 57 55 53 53 53 53 52 52 53 56 57 63 59 46 39 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 20 20 22 23 25 25 25 28 28 32 34 36 41 43 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -27 -29 -31 -26 -28 -26 -25 -27 -18 -9 3 22 52 85 123 133 200 MB DIV 63 36 21 13 21 35 36 12 28 29 57 62 72 78 75 81 12 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -1 -3 -1 0 1 0 -1 -1 6 15 16 14 28 1 LAND (KM) 1021 1026 1031 1034 1042 1078 1035 991 984 919 751 679 730 942 1287 1097 808 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.2 16.2 17.0 17.8 18.9 20.1 21.7 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.7 49.3 49.8 50.4 51.0 52.0 53.2 54.4 55.4 57.0 58.8 60.3 61.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 10 10 10 13 16 18 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 30 36 39 38 38 45 42 34 38 60 62 28 61 28 19 5 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -4. -10. -18. -29. -39. -46. -52. -55. -58. -61. -64. -66. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 2. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 17. 18. 16. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 6. 6. 10. 10. 12. 16. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -13. -16. -23. -28. -29. -32. -29. -28. -26. -25. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 13.4 48.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/26/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 766.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 7.3% 4.7% 2.5% 0.9% 2.2% 1.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 5.8% 6.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 4.6% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 8.0% 5.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/26/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/26/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 41( 63) 33( 75) 31( 83) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 18 32( 44) 24( 58) 27( 69) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 128 127 124 120 115 112 109 102 97 96 92 96 97 99 99 97 18HR AGO 125 124 123 120 116 111 108 105 98 93 92 88 92 93 95 95 93 12HR AGO 125 122 121 118 114 109 106 103 96 91 90 86 90 91 93 93 91 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 111 106 103 100 93 88 87 83 87 88 90 90 88 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 101 98 95 88 83 82 78 82 83 85 85 83 IN 6HR 125 128 119 113 110 107 104 101 94 89 88 84 88 89 91 91 89 IN 12HR 125 128 127 118 112 108 105 102 95 90 89 85 89 90 92 92 90