* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/25/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 120 121 119 117 114 113 112 109 107 101 105 103 107 107 108 102 V (KT) LAND 115 120 121 119 117 114 113 112 109 107 101 105 103 107 107 108 102 V (KT) LGEM 115 119 119 116 112 109 108 105 102 100 100 99 93 90 86 79 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 6 9 6 8 6 9 9 9 14 15 17 21 25 43 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -1 -4 -2 -1 -4 1 2 3 5 9 0 SHEAR DIR 218 183 269 279 280 265 295 286 320 287 265 249 246 241 220 215 209 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 142 142 141 144 144 143 144 146 143 142 147 149 149 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 136 134 134 133 135 135 133 134 137 133 132 137 137 134 115 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -54.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 5 2 700-500 MB RH 57 59 58 55 55 54 53 53 53 54 54 55 60 61 51 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 19 20 22 24 25 26 27 27 32 33 37 38 42 41 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -17 -20 -26 -28 -26 -27 -27 -31 -23 -19 -1 21 44 95 105 22 200 MB DIV 45 80 27 2 3 43 54 28 55 36 61 81 85 49 68 22 7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 -1 1 1 2 -2 1 2 11 15 18 19 -14 LAND (KM) 1022 1009 999 1001 1003 1029 1052 1000 960 955 887 741 609 664 906 1203 1091 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.6 15.4 16.2 17.0 17.9 18.9 20.1 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.1 48.8 49.4 49.9 50.4 51.4 52.5 53.6 54.8 56.0 57.3 58.9 60.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 9 11 12 14 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 25 32 37 40 39 39 48 42 36 44 62 61 29 48 53 38 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -13. -22. -29. -36. -40. -42. -45. -48. -50. -52. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 17. 15. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 12. 12. 16. 16. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -14. -10. -12. -8. -8. -7. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.1 48.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/25/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 660.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.25 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.5% 24.6% 17.8% 12.6% 6.6% 9.2% 4.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 16.8% 18.9% 8.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.3% 14.5% 8.6% 4.3% 2.2% 3.1% 1.4% 0.3% DTOPS: 28.0% 8.0% 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/25/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/25/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 34( 54) 32( 69) 30( 78) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 17 57( 64) 46( 81) 39( 88) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 120 121 119 117 114 113 112 109 107 101 105 103 107 107 108 102 18HR AGO 115 114 115 113 111 108 107 106 103 101 95 99 97 101 101 102 96 12HR AGO 115 112 111 109 107 104 103 102 99 97 91 95 93 97 97 98 92 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 103 100 99 98 95 93 87 91 89 93 93 94 88 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 93 92 91 88 86 80 84 82 86 86 87 81 IN 6HR 115 120 111 105 102 101 100 99 96 94 88 92 90 94 94 95 89 IN 12HR 115 120 121 112 106 102 101 100 97 95 89 93 91 95 95 96 90