* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/25/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 110 113 113 112 110 111 113 114 112 108 108 105 106 108 107 109 V (KT) LAND 105 110 113 113 112 110 111 113 114 112 108 108 105 106 108 107 109 V (KT) LGEM 105 110 112 111 110 107 106 105 107 106 104 100 94 88 85 84 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 0 1 7 8 5 6 5 5 7 15 14 17 17 17 33 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 -2 -2 -3 1 4 4 8 3 SHEAR DIR 252 221 105 268 288 300 294 11 305 299 263 254 246 231 227 219 224 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 144 143 144 142 141 146 143 144 144 149 140 146 146 145 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 138 136 136 135 132 137 134 133 133 140 130 136 134 132 128 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 57 57 59 58 56 54 53 52 50 52 51 55 57 61 53 37 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 20 20 21 24 25 27 28 28 31 31 33 36 39 44 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -22 -19 -24 -28 -26 -26 -26 -28 -22 -24 -8 4 28 62 111 -26 200 MB DIV 34 38 61 46 17 33 62 39 30 64 23 68 68 58 76 35 4 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 1 3 -1 0 3 5 11 10 14 -3 LAND (KM) 1047 1023 1007 996 986 1010 1056 1013 968 960 958 807 658 634 751 999 1194 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.7 17.6 18.3 19.3 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.2 48.0 48.8 49.3 49.9 51.0 52.0 53.1 54.4 55.5 56.6 58.1 60.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 10 11 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 32 37 40 38 44 49 37 39 53 62 37 40 49 36 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -15. -21. -26. -29. -31. -34. -36. -38. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 14. 16. 17. 16. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 11. 10. 13. 15. 16. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 8. 7. 5. 6. 8. 9. 7. 3. 3. 0. 1. 3. 2. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 12.8 47.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/25/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 575.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.34 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 16.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 8.3% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6% 3.5% 4.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 33.0% 29.5% 10.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.9% 17.9% 8.6% 0.8% 0.3% 1.5% 1.6% 0.2% DTOPS: 41.0% 25.0% 22.0% 5.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/25/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/25/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 30( 49) 30( 64) 29( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 11( 13) 13( 24) 11( 32) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 110 113 113 112 110 111 113 114 112 108 108 105 106 108 107 109 18HR AGO 105 104 107 107 106 104 105 107 108 106 102 102 99 100 102 101 103 12HR AGO 105 102 101 101 100 98 99 101 102 100 96 96 93 94 96 95 97 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 94 92 93 95 96 94 90 90 87 88 90 89 91 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 84 85 87 88 86 82 82 79 80 82 81 83 IN 6HR 105 110 101 95 92 90 91 93 94 92 88 88 85 86 88 87 89 IN 12HR 105 110 113 104 98 94 95 97 98 96 92 92 89 90 92 91 93