* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/24/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 83 89 94 103 106 109 109 108 106 105 103 102 99 100 100 V (KT) LAND 70 76 83 89 94 103 106 109 109 108 106 105 103 102 99 100 100 V (KT) LGEM 70 74 79 84 90 101 109 111 109 106 103 103 100 95 89 83 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 2 2 0 3 4 4 5 7 7 8 10 13 19 18 22 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 0 -1 -1 1 -1 -6 -2 -1 -1 1 1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 15 20 344 63 312 303 325 259 293 292 275 256 253 239 242 243 234 SST (C) 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 148 144 143 144 145 143 145 144 146 148 150 149 149 149 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 150 145 139 138 138 139 136 138 136 138 139 139 139 141 141 144 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 57 58 57 55 55 57 55 51 50 50 49 50 53 58 58 50 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 17 20 20 23 25 25 27 28 29 30 30 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -7 -16 -28 -31 -27 -29 -36 -34 -25 -33 -22 -13 8 24 50 87 200 MB DIV 66 53 28 22 32 51 43 55 63 29 46 47 67 67 89 33 43 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -3 0 0 1 2 5 3 6 3 3 6 9 7 11 LAND (KM) 1164 1106 1049 1021 998 963 947 983 1008 944 901 889 761 601 496 544 738 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 13.0 13.4 14.2 15.1 16.0 16.9 17.8 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.3 45.3 46.4 47.0 47.7 49.1 50.3 51.5 52.8 54.1 55.5 57.0 58.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 20 25 25 24 25 36 42 40 51 47 40 49 48 60 35 53 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 24. 33. 36. 39. 39. 38. 36. 35. 34. 32. 29. 30. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 11.9 44.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/24/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.5 30.1 to 2.3 1.00 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 399.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.38 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.4% 40.1% 29.8% 24.6% 20.9% 27.6% 23.6% 15.6% Logistic: 16.0% 42.9% 34.4% 25.6% 15.9% 23.5% 16.0% 5.5% Bayesian: 10.9% 62.7% 45.4% 4.9% 5.1% 30.3% 14.2% 0.2% Consensus: 15.5% 48.6% 36.5% 18.4% 14.0% 27.1% 18.0% 7.1% DTOPS: 36.0% 59.0% 37.0% 22.0% 10.0% 22.0% 12.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/24/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/24/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 9( 13) 16( 27) 25( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 9( 11) 10( 20) 46( 57) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 76 83 89 94 103 106 109 109 108 106 105 103 102 99 100 100 18HR AGO 70 69 76 82 87 96 99 102 102 101 99 98 96 95 92 93 93 12HR AGO 70 67 66 72 77 86 89 92 92 91 89 88 86 85 82 83 83 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 65 74 77 80 80 79 77 76 74 73 70 71 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 70 76 83 74 68 64 67 70 70 69 67 66 64 63 60 61 61