* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/24/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 81 89 95 104 109 111 110 107 105 107 104 102 102 102 102 V (KT) LAND 65 73 81 89 95 104 109 111 110 107 105 107 104 102 102 102 102 V (KT) LGEM 65 73 80 87 94 105 112 113 110 106 104 102 99 96 92 89 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 3 5 5 6 10 11 10 7 7 7 11 9 17 11 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -3 -1 0 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 1 1 4 2 SHEAR DIR 216 322 63 53 31 16 317 308 293 312 284 261 252 251 236 233 241 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 148 150 149 144 142 144 144 143 142 143 147 149 151 150 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 147 148 149 146 139 137 138 138 138 135 134 138 142 143 139 135 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0 -53.5 -54.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 60 57 58 58 57 56 55 53 50 50 49 50 52 53 59 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 19 17 20 20 22 22 22 23 27 28 28 29 32 36 850 MB ENV VOR 4 1 -6 -9 -16 -34 -35 -32 -34 -26 -29 -34 -32 -18 5 20 41 200 MB DIV 21 49 68 73 56 34 23 49 56 69 53 69 53 76 73 96 58 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 1 3 6 5 6 6 8 6 9 7 LAND (KM) 1336 1256 1184 1135 1089 1018 1002 975 983 1037 967 932 915 739 508 381 381 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.4 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.9 16.1 17.1 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.6 42.8 43.9 44.8 45.8 47.1 48.3 49.7 50.9 52.4 53.9 55.3 56.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 9 9 8 9 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 23 25 25 30 48 44 50 42 37 49 44 54 35 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 11. 11. 10. 10. 12. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 24. 30. 39. 44. 46. 45. 42. 40. 42. 39. 37. 37. 37. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 11.4 41.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/24/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 13.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.97 7.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.57 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.46 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.6% 53.0% 42.6% 34.5% 26.2% 37.6% 27.9% 16.5% Logistic: 17.5% 58.0% 45.5% 28.3% 16.4% 39.3% 32.6% 20.0% Bayesian: 22.0% 73.7% 50.4% 7.3% 6.2% 27.8% 34.3% 0.8% Consensus: 21.0% 61.6% 46.2% 23.4% 16.2% 34.9% 31.6% 12.4% DTOPS: 65.0% 96.0% 90.0% 86.0% 50.0% 76.0% 35.0% 22.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/24/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/24/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 8( 10) 17( 25) 26( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 7( 11) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 73 81 89 95 104 109 111 110 107 105 107 104 102 102 102 102 18HR AGO 65 64 72 80 86 95 100 102 101 98 96 98 95 93 93 93 93 12HR AGO 65 62 61 69 75 84 89 91 90 87 85 87 84 82 82 82 82 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 61 70 75 77 76 73 71 73 70 68 68 68 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT