* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/24/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 68 78 87 95 105 110 112 111 109 107 104 103 103 104 103 102 V (KT) LAND 60 68 78 87 95 105 110 112 111 109 107 104 103 103 104 103 102 V (KT) LGEM 60 68 77 86 95 108 112 113 109 106 104 101 99 97 94 90 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 7 7 8 7 12 10 11 6 8 9 11 12 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -4 -3 0 -2 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 2 -1 1 5 SHEAR DIR 13 27 28 51 46 342 353 306 311 285 306 234 233 231 223 238 223 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 147 148 151 146 142 144 144 143 143 141 144 147 148 151 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 150 147 148 150 141 137 139 137 136 136 134 135 137 139 142 141 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 58 57 54 56 55 52 49 50 47 49 49 52 54 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 18 19 20 20 22 22 23 25 26 27 29 31 32 34 850 MB ENV VOR 11 4 -2 -11 -16 -36 -36 -30 -28 -27 -19 -30 -30 -31 -7 1 34 200 MB DIV 26 48 67 71 75 34 52 49 51 63 66 40 52 36 55 59 71 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 3 4 5 7 5 6 4 13 LAND (KM) 1431 1329 1236 1175 1123 1051 992 993 983 1013 1026 968 949 823 638 460 414 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.3 13.8 14.5 15.6 16.7 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.3 41.6 42.9 43.9 44.9 46.5 47.8 49.1 50.4 51.6 52.9 54.4 56.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 9 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 9 10 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 15 21 21 20 25 26 26 42 48 44 51 35 42 51 48 43 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 16. 11. 6. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 27. 35. 45. 50. 52. 51. 49. 47. 44. 43. 43. 44. 43. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.1 40.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/24/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 13.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.92 7.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 6.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 6.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 328.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.60 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.51 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 5.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.9% 56.4% 45.0% 33.5% 22.9% 45.1% 28.6% 18.0% Logistic: 24.9% 65.5% 54.3% 41.9% 27.3% 45.3% 34.0% 24.6% Bayesian: 27.9% 79.3% 62.6% 12.3% 15.4% 29.8% 12.0% 1.6% Consensus: 24.9% 67.0% 53.9% 29.2% 21.8% 40.1% 24.9% 14.7% DTOPS: 71.0% 98.0% 97.0% 96.0% 66.0% 93.0% 94.0% 61.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/24/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/24/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 6( 6) 17( 22) 27( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 12( 16) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 68 78 87 95 105 110 112 111 109 107 104 103 103 104 103 102 18HR AGO 60 59 69 78 86 96 101 103 102 100 98 95 94 94 95 94 93 12HR AGO 60 57 56 65 73 83 88 90 89 87 85 82 81 81 82 81 80 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 58 68 73 75 74 72 70 67 66 66 67 66 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT